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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 21 Feb 2021

      I was trying, desperately, to warn us to get ready in February of 2020—and being lectured about being too panicky—but also trying to swat down the baseless moral panic once we started having more clarity on the shape of the risk—and being told, a lot, to stay in my lane.

      6 replies 23 retweets 393 likes
      Show this thread
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 21 Feb 2021

      It makes sense to be extra cautious at first when facing a murky, exponential threat. But if we don't then adjust the communication and the rules as the shape of the risk becomes clearer & have proper trade-off discussions, we get fatigue, non-compliance and *more risk* not less.

      11 replies 120 retweets 799 likes
      Show this thread
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 21 Feb 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted  💚 Jens-Petter Salvesen  🌍

      This is what I'd expect. It's been a year and I am not aware of a single outdoor-only superspreader event. It's not impossible but after a year, it seems low enough risk that I don't really worry about it until we get one.https://twitter.com/jpsalvesen/status/1363512609924866049 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

       💚 Jens-Petter Salvesen  🌍 @jpsalvesen
      Replying to @zeynep
      Data point: Students in Bergen, Norway had their start-of -the-year party indoors in a basement, out of sight. Major cluster. Oslo students partied outdoors. Major news coverage but no major cluster traced. (But later on, they hid indoors and are now lonely w remote learning)
      23 replies 77 retweets 445 likes
      Show this thread
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 21 Feb 2021

      People asking about variants. Of course. We should *up* our cautions, till we get more clarity. This was my piece from last day of 2020. Absolutely stand by it. New murky threat with exponential fuel: up your cautions. Clarity+data? Adjust & tamper down. https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/12/virus-mutation-catastrophe/617531/ …pic.twitter.com/R9A47lA9BL

      3 replies 23 retweets 197 likes
      Show this thread
    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 21 Feb 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted zeynep tufekci

      Here's by piece pleading to stop the beach-scolding from last July, with a thread that kept going and going... I had stopped updating it but it turns out we're not tired of beach-scolding so some new entries recently. https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1279432888048594944 …?

      zeynep tufekci added,

      zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynep
      Enough with the beach-scolding! It's not scientifically-sound and it's counterproductive. It's a virus—not a moral agent geared to smite people who dare enjoy themselves. Six months in, we *know* most risk is indoors. More knowledge, less baseless outrage. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/it-okay-go-beach/613849/ … pic.twitter.com/rM3uC1pHI6
      Show this thread
      4 replies 21 retweets 250 likes
      Show this thread
    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 21 Feb 2021

      REMEMBER THE FLORIDA GRIM REAPER BEACH JERK? The lawyer dressed up as grim reaper, approaching complete strangers in Florida beaches and holding lengthy, scolding conversations with them posted on social media for ridicule and many RTs? Probably the only risk they faced was him.

      12 replies 15 retweets 324 likes
      Show this thread
    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 21 Feb 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted virginiahume

      Cognitive biases, moral panics, authoritarian impulses, victim-blaming, groupthink, traditional & social media distortions, ignoring everything we know about human behavior & sometimes even viruses, philosophical frequentism, terrible risk-assessment...https://twitter.com/virginiahume/status/1363507633840349185 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      virginiahumeVerified account @virginiahume
      Can’t wait to read the book someone will surely write, looking at this past year through the lens of cognitive biases. There’s an absolute gold mine of material. https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1363491410075389962 …
      9 replies 59 retweets 375 likes
      Show this thread
    8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 21 Feb 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Tommy Unger

      I'd start the missteps on January 1, 2020 to be honest. Downplaying an exponential risk, being unable to judge what we were seeing before & after Wuhan lockdown, ignoring/ridiculing Asian expertise (remember masks are superstition and/or harmful pieces?)https://twitter.com/tommyunger/status/1363519068444053513 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Tommy Unger @tommyunger
      All the things about the later stages of this pandemic. Looking forward to the thoughtful, well researched, and written perspective. https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1363516965072105473 …
      4 replies 26 retweets 225 likes
      Show this thread
    9. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 21 Feb 2021

      Again, you *could* find the info on social media if you manage to find & follow the right experts but how are people supposed to distinguish the "right" experts from others with excellent credentials, education & positions.. who are, ahem, not so right? Yeah, unsolvable at scale.

      8 replies 11 retweets 198 likes
      Show this thread
    10. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 21 Feb 2021

      To the people telling me about the Sturgis rally. Forget the trad/social media moral panic—and the speculative reporting & headlines. We have actual papers. The event had a huge indoor component & what spread we do know happened in restaurants/workplaces. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6947e1.htm#T1_down …pic.twitter.com/cD8jDxLZpM

      6 replies 48 retweets 287 likes
      Show this thread
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 21 Feb 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Mark Yellin

      I don't know. It's not impossible but to me, it looks less likely than it did in early January—more data. Cases down, vaccinations up, seasonality in our favor. I support sensible precautions (go outdoors! wear masks indoors!) & vaccinating as fast we can.https://twitter.com/myellin2/status/1363520782987649026 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Mark Yellin @myellin2
      Replying to @zeynep
      Thinking historically, isn’t a third (Spring) wave inevitable?
      8:33 AM - 21 Feb 2021
      • 9 Retweets
      • 183 Likes
      • l’haricotsblanc ⚪️ Adrian Mohareb Ángel Gálvez Papa Morada 🥔 DaisySirius ferdy sherean Señorita Rocío #Boosted Tony B.
      6 replies 9 retweets 183 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 21 Feb 2021

          Predictions beyond a month or so are hard (too many variables interacting/too many unknowns) but here's what we do know. Things ARE absolutely looking up. But we're not out of the woods yet. But there are many things we *can* do more safely now, and even more after vaccination.

          8 replies 13 retweets 196 likes
          Show this thread
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 21 Feb 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted zeynep tufekci

          *called. Only once! Sorry typing on the phone only goes so far. 😬😄https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1363490391287345160 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynep
          I’m not saying it was a wise thing to rush out to celebrate. But how many events like this have we had? Outdoors but widely condemned, confidently called called superspreader. But wasn’t, barely reported. (UNC tests all students on campus twice a week and off campus once a week). https://twitter.com/JoedyMcCreary/status/1362881044551237639 …
          Show this thread
          3 replies 1 retweet 34 likes
          Show this thread
        4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 23 Feb 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Roel Schroeven

          Request: I'm not aware of any outdoor-only superspreader event. The rare confirmed outdoor transmission cases usually involve lengthy and high-exertion (huffing & puffing) contact. If know of any, please send them. Been tracking down reports for a year.https://twitter.com/roelschroeven/status/1364239981519265793 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Roel Schroeven @roelschroeven
          Replying to @zeynep
          Thank you for your clarifications, and for your effort. I heard some professor on the radio talk about 1/10 transmissions outdoor, which is what concerned me a bit, but it seems quite overblown indeed. The review paper talks about <1/10, which is not the same thing.
          19 replies 35 retweets 174 likes
          Show this thread
        5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 23 Feb 2021

          Outdoor transmission is not impossible, though seems to be really high bar, so far. It may even happen because something *changes* that we should be aware of. At some point, though absence of evidence *is* evidence exactly because we are looking hard. So please send counters!

          10 replies 13 retweets 143 likes
          Show this thread
        6. End of conversation
        1. This Tweet is unavailable.
        2. Amber Hoover‏ @neversent 21 Feb 2021
          Replying to @ApiaryMedicine @zeynep

          A lot of the summer wave was in hot climates where people are driven indoors for AC. Rates in NY, where I live, plummeted in the summer once we could get outside. After being hit hardest in March-May. Rates when up again as soon as it got too cold to be comfortably outdoors.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Tafkak‏ @tafkak 21 Feb 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          pic.twitter.com/Qq1lPTrc5u

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. I Brake 4 Ants‏ @ibrake4ants 23 Feb 2021
          Replying to @tafkak @zeynep

          Wow... that’s alarming!

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Deva Hazarika‏ @devahaz 21 Feb 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          Combination of poor math/science grounding and politicization. People have bad intuition for things like viral load, exposure levels, risk thresholds. So politicians stake all-or-nothing positions and don’t change with new data. Leaving us with misguided advice from both sides.

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. Lee Finkelstein‏ @leefink 21 Feb 2021
          Replying to @devahaz @zeynep

          My only pushback on your politicization comment is that our society at large doesn't do nuance well. We like to see things in binary terms. Right/wrong - black/white - my way/highway...

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Show replies

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