I was trying, desperately, to warn us to get ready in February of 2020—and being lectured about being too panicky—but also trying to swat down the baseless moral panic once we started having more clarity on the shape of the risk—and being told, a lot, to stay in my lane.
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Predictions beyond a month or so are hard (too many variables interacting/too many unknowns) but here's what we do know. Things ARE absolutely looking up. But we're not out of the woods yet. But there are many things we *can* do more safely now, and even more after vaccination.
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*called. Only once! Sorry typing on the phone only goes so far.

https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1363490391287345160 …Show this thread -
Request: I'm not aware of any outdoor-only superspreader event. The rare confirmed outdoor transmission cases usually involve lengthy and high-exertion (huffing & puffing) contact. If know of any, please send them. Been tracking down reports for a year.https://twitter.com/roelschroeven/status/1364239981519265793 …
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Outdoor transmission is not impossible, though seems to be really high bar, so far. It may even happen because something *changes* that we should be aware of. At some point, though absence of evidence *is* evidence exactly because we are looking hard. So please send counters!
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A lot of the summer wave was in hot climates where people are driven indoors for AC. Rates in NY, where I live, plummeted in the summer once we could get outside. After being hit hardest in March-May. Rates when up again as soon as it got too cold to be comfortably outdoors.
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Wow... that’s alarming!
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Combination of poor math/science grounding and politicization. People have bad intuition for things like viral load, exposure levels, risk thresholds. So politicians stake all-or-nothing positions and don’t change with new data. Leaving us with misguided advice from both sides.
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My only pushback on your politicization comment is that our society at large doesn't do nuance well. We like to see things in binary terms. Right/wrong - black/white - my way/highway...
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