I was trying, desperately, to warn us to get ready in February of 2020—and being lectured about being too panicky—but also trying to swat down the baseless moral panic once we started having more clarity on the shape of the risk—and being told, a lot, to stay in my lane.
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It makes sense to be extra cautious at first when facing a murky, exponential threat. But if we don't then adjust the communication and the rules as the shape of the risk becomes clearer & have proper trade-off discussions, we get fatigue, non-compliance and *more risk* not less.
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted 💚 Jens-Petter Salvesen 🌍
This is what I'd expect. It's been a year and I am not aware of a single outdoor-only superspreader event. It's not impossible but after a year, it seems low enough risk that I don't really worry about it until we get one.https://twitter.com/jpsalvesen/status/1363512609924866049 …
zeynep tufekci added,
💚 Jens-Petter Salvesen 🌍 @jpsalvesenReplying to @zeynepData point: Students in Bergen, Norway had their start-of -the-year party indoors in a basement, out of sight. Major cluster. Oslo students partied outdoors. Major news coverage but no major cluster traced. (But later on, they hid indoors and are now lonely w remote learning)23 replies 77 retweets 445 likesShow this thread -
People asking about variants. Of course. We should *up* our cautions, till we get more clarity. This was my piece from last day of 2020. Absolutely stand by it. New murky threat with exponential fuel: up your cautions. Clarity+data? Adjust & tamper down. https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/12/virus-mutation-catastrophe/617531/ …pic.twitter.com/R9A47lA9BL
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted zeynep tufekci
Here's by piece pleading to stop the beach-scolding from last July, with a thread that kept going and going... I had stopped updating it but it turns out we're not tired of beach-scolding so some new entries recently. https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1279432888048594944 …?
zeynep tufekci added,
zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynepEnough with the beach-scolding! It's not scientifically-sound and it's counterproductive. It's a virus—not a moral agent geared to smite people who dare enjoy themselves. Six months in, we *know* most risk is indoors. More knowledge, less baseless outrage. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/it-okay-go-beach/613849/ … pic.twitter.com/rM3uC1pHI6Show this thread4 replies 21 retweets 250 likesShow this thread -
REMEMBER THE FLORIDA GRIM REAPER BEACH JERK? The lawyer dressed up as grim reaper, approaching complete strangers in Florida beaches and holding lengthy, scolding conversations with them posted on social media for ridicule and many RTs? Probably the only risk they faced was him.
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted virginiahume
Cognitive biases, moral panics, authoritarian impulses, victim-blaming, groupthink, traditional & social media distortions, ignoring everything we know about human behavior & sometimes even viruses, philosophical frequentism, terrible risk-assessment...https://twitter.com/virginiahume/status/1363507633840349185 …
zeynep tufekci added,
9 replies 59 retweets 375 likesShow this thread -
zeynep tufekci Retweeted Tommy Unger
I'd start the missteps on January 1, 2020 to be honest. Downplaying an exponential risk, being unable to judge what we were seeing before & after Wuhan lockdown, ignoring/ridiculing Asian expertise (remember masks are superstition and/or harmful pieces?)https://twitter.com/tommyunger/status/1363519068444053513 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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Again, you *could* find the info on social media if you manage to find & follow the right experts but how are people supposed to distinguish the "right" experts from others with excellent credentials, education & positions.. who are, ahem, not so right? Yeah, unsolvable at scale.
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It can. I've been tracking the COVID ones religiously and it's possible but not easy. (I know of a reported case from Italy: jogging outdoors for a long time, unmasked and talking (probably yelling at) to each other from close distance).
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Replying to @zeynep @TomPaineToday
Yeah, this is my understanding. It can, but it’s unlikely unless there’s relatively close, prolonged contact.
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yes, what you two said! (sorry for my overly broad "never")
0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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