“partial population immunity changes the threshold at which behavioral change produces a plummet in cases....”https://twitter.com/awgaffney/status/1363286853265338372 …
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That is not what is being conveyed though. This data may end up being revised as more information comes out but would these numbers (or close to them) necessitate NPIs POST vaccination? This is the messaging.https://twitter.com/ariehkovler/status/1363171631703687171?s=20 …
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I don't think so, at least not after we reach a tipping point where R0 falls (and stays) below 1 even with all NPIs removed. This doesn't require 100% vaccine effectiveness. Vaccine hesitancy is the X-factor.
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by 'changes the threshold' - does this mean our individual behaviors count more or less? I have read the sentence like 10 times and I am not quite understanding the meaning. Thank you
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Increases in the % immune reduces Rt by reducing the avg number of people an infectious person infects. Behavior (masking, etc) also reduces Rt. As a surge progresses the combined reductions will eventually bring Rt below 1 and cases will fall
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Pandemic liminality. We’ve been in it since December.
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Right, but vaccinations are not happening quickly enough here in the US and it won’t be warm for a couple of months. If people see the dip in cases now, think it’s over, and stop the mitigating behaviors, we’d see another surge. That’s my fear as I understand the variables.
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I just contact-traced a case with 3 close contacts. 1 had been vaccinated, and 1 previously had COVID--so I'm really only worried about 1 additional positive, instead of 3. That wasn't the situation last semester. It's a good feeling.
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But they need lockdowns forever!!!
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