Yes, but. Vaccination + seasonality + more infections work against that. But especially vaccinations. That’s the true way out.https://twitter.com/SilvanaRam/status/1363297021000617985 …
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That would mean if we lower our guard and stop wearing masks, distancing, etc., the numbers would climb again, right?
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Yes the numbers may climb again if we let our guard down.
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There seems to be a lack of useful behavioral data out there to show these patterns in play. Google Mobility doesn't help all that much. I find that OpenTable data seems helpful but don't know how long they will keep publishing it.
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Thank you for the introduction to
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And thank you for the introduction to
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The easiest way to think about this is with R. Herd immunity is achieved when R falls below 1 - and it's beneficial because when R<1 the underlying dynamics mean cases trend down. We can reach R<1 through any combination of policies. Widespread vaxx is just the most reliable.
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The key is that we want to keep R<1 as much as possible. As vaccination rates rise, we should be able to relax other precautions somewhat and still keep R<1.
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Large partial immunity in Manaus as of Nov 2020 (Sabino et al.2021, The Lancet) was of little avail in the face of the P.1 variant (~90% of local sequences in Jan 2021), which seems to have set off the second wave that more than doubled excess deaths. See caption for sources.pic.twitter.com/wf9W9ix4N5
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Please stop referencing Manaus. The blood donor data that predicted 76% infected was clearly an improper sample and not accurate. Seroprevalence was likely roughly 1/2 that number.
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