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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 20 Feb 2021

    zeynep tufekci Retweeted Adam W Gaffney

    “partial population immunity changes the threshold at which behavioral change produces a plummet in cases....”https://twitter.com/awgaffney/status/1363286853265338372 …

    zeynep tufekci added,

    Adam W GaffneyVerified account @awgaffney
    ... even if, at the same time, a substantial portion of the population remains susceptible. Which means policy implications are limited. An overly simplified, binary notion of “herd immunity” has been an unfortunate, misleading conceptual anchor throughout this pandemic.
    Show this thread
    5:15 PM - 20 Feb 2021
    • 26 Retweets
    • 174 Likes
    • Javier Tobio™️ Illegal Emigrant Adam Morgan Schuyler Livingston Elli Hisham Ziauddeen Pieter Peach Bry Massiha Habibi
    9 replies 26 retweets 174 likes
      1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 20 Feb 2021

        zeynep tufekci Retweeted withhold your labor, make them pay

        Yes, but. Vaccination + seasonality + more infections work against that. But especially vaccinations. That’s the true way out.https://twitter.com/SilvanaRam/status/1363297021000617985 …

        zeynep tufekci added,

        withhold your labor, make them pay @SilvanaRam
        Replying to @zeynep
        That would mean if we lower our guard and stop wearing masks, distancing, etc., the numbers would climb again, right?
        7 replies 15 retweets 111 likes
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      2. withhold your labor, make them pay‏ @SilvanaRam 20 Feb 2021
        Replying to @zeynep

        That would mean if we lower our guard and stop wearing masks, distancing, etc., the numbers would climb again, right?

        1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
      3. Vicki Martinez  🐦‏ @vicki_martinez 21 Feb 2021
        Replying to @SilvanaRam @zeynep

        Yes the numbers may climb again if we let our guard down.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Scienceflare‏ @scienceflare 20 Feb 2021
        Replying to @zeynep

        There seems to be a lack of useful behavioral data out there to show these patterns in play. Google Mobility doesn't help all that much. I find that OpenTable data seems helpful but don't know how long they will keep publishing it.

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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      1. deb2020texas‏ @DebThobe 20 Feb 2021
        Replying to @zeynep @MrJonCryer

        Thank you for the introduction to @awgaffney !

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. deb2020texas‏ @DebThobe 20 Feb 2021
        Replying to @zeynep @MrJonCryer

        And thank you for the introduction to @zeynep !

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      2. Zoë McLaren, PhD‏ @ZoeMcLaren 20 Feb 2021
        Replying to @zeynep

        The easiest way to think about this is with R. Herd immunity is achieved when R falls below 1 - and it's beneficial because when R<1 the underlying dynamics mean cases trend down. We can reach R<1 through any combination of policies. Widespread vaxx is just the most reliable.

        2 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
      3. Zoë McLaren, PhD‏ @ZoeMcLaren 20 Feb 2021
        Replying to @ZoeMcLaren @zeynep

        The key is that we want to keep R<1 as much as possible. As vaccination rates rise, we should be able to relax other precautions somewhat and still keep R<1.

        2 replies 1 retweet 10 likes
      4. Show replies
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      2. Bruce Walker Nelson‏ @B_Nelson_Manaus 21 Feb 2021
        Replying to @zeynep

        Large partial immunity in Manaus as of Nov 2020 (Sabino et al.2021, The Lancet) was of little avail in the face of the P.1 variant (~90% of local sequences in Jan 2021), which seems to have set off the second wave that more than doubled excess deaths. See caption for sources.pic.twitter.com/wf9W9ix4N5

        1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
      3. Ryan Horath‏ @therealrthorat 23 Feb 2021
        Replying to @B_Nelson_Manaus @zeynep

        Please stop referencing Manaus. The blood donor data that predicted 76% infected was clearly an improper sample and not accurate. Seroprevalence was likely roughly 1/2 that number.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation

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