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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Chris van Tulleken  🏳️‍🌈‏Verified account @DoctorChrisVT 20 Feb 2021

      Chris van Tulleken  🏳️‍🌈 Retweeted Jennifer Tamu Graham

      The K number describes the variability in the number of people an infected person infects! So pathogens with low K numbers (like SARS-CoV-2) are spread by a SMALL number of infected people who pass the virus to a LARGE number of others. This is really important...threadhttps://twitter.com/Jennifertamu/status/1363043046284288000 …

      Chris van Tulleken  🏳️‍🌈 added,

      Jennifer Tamu Graham @Jennifertamu
      Replying to @DoctorChrisVT @BBCBreakfast
      What are K numbers? Unfortunately I am watching a Hey Duggee marathon so I can’t watch the news to find out 🙈
      10 replies 28 retweets 99 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Chris van Tulleken  🏳️‍🌈‏Verified account @DoctorChrisVT 20 Feb 2021

      For the influenza which caused the 1918 pandemic, K is around 1. So 60% of people spread the virus. Sars, Mers and COVID-19 have K around 0.1 so only around 30% of people are responsible for most of the spread of the virus. Large outbreaks are caused by a few super-spreaders.

      1 reply 2 retweets 22 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Chris van Tulleken  🏳️‍🌈‏Verified account @DoctorChrisVT 20 Feb 2021

      This makes control trickier - isolating many people won’t make much difference if you miss a few super spreaders. One person can mess it up for everyone.

      2 replies 1 retweet 18 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Chris van Tulleken  🏳️‍🌈‏Verified account @DoctorChrisVT 20 Feb 2021

      It’s not entirely clear why this happens - some people may shed more virus because of their biology but it’s likely that particular events turn someone into a superspreader. Clusters of COVID-19 mainly happen in poorly ventilated, indoor environments...

      1 reply 1 retweet 17 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Chris van Tulleken  🏳️‍🌈‏Verified account @DoctorChrisVT 20 Feb 2021

      ...especially where people are talking loudly or singing for prolonged periods.

      1 reply 1 retweet 12 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Chris van Tulleken  🏳️‍🌈‏Verified account @DoctorChrisVT 20 Feb 2021

      In pandemics with a low K backward tracing is extremely important.

      1 reply 1 retweet 20 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Chris van Tulleken  🏳️‍🌈‏Verified account @DoctorChrisVT 20 Feb 2021

      This is when we try to find not just the people that a case may have infected but we look for the person who infected each case. That person is likely to be a superspreader and so nice their found you can then go on to find all the others they infected.

      1 reply 1 retweet 18 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Chris van Tulleken  🏳️‍🌈‏Verified account @DoctorChrisVT 20 Feb 2021

      Of course this is only possible once transmission is really low. It takes time money and resources - when we have 1000s of new cases each day backward tracing just isn’t feasible.

      2 replies 4 retweets 26 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Chris van Tulleken  🏳️‍🌈‏Verified account @DoctorChrisVT 20 Feb 2021

      Here’s an absurdly good piece in the @TheAtlantic by @zeynep -https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/ …

      10 replies 34 retweets 93 likes
      Show this thread
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 20 Feb 2021
      Replying to @DoctorChrisVT @TheAtlantic

      Thank you!

      5:04 AM - 20 Feb 2021
      • 1 Like
      • Brownies
      0 replies 0 retweets 1 like

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