One sign of covid’s nastiness is the fact that the covid countermeasures basically eradicated the flu while covid still surgedhttps://twitter.com/NPR/status/1361187565068509184 …
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Replying to @tomgara
Nastiness how? That reflects infectiousness patterns/mechanisms and spreading in a world without much prior immunity rather than IFR/CFR differences (though, of course, COVID is much worse than influenza).
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Replying to @tomgara
Right. That's partly a function of lack of prior immunity. But also flu is not similarly overdispersed. I guess we'll have a better comparison next year.
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Replying to @zeynep
I'm just assuming that flu going to zero is evidence of how much worse covid would've been absent some of these interventions, is that wrong?
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Replying to @tomgara
Interesting question. I mean, it would for sure be worse without the interventions (Wuhan, NYC, Lombardy..) How much does flu tell us about the downside in comparison? Not sure that's an easy calculation given different pathogen/pattern of infectiousness.
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Flu is droplet. Covid is aerosol. Masks work much much better for droplet, less so for aerosol (though still better than nothing)
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One interesting difference I've been wondereing about is that children are kinda superspreaders of influenza (but not COVID), but children are isolated in many places around the world anyway. Maybe that really suppressed flu?
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Replying to @zeynep @istherebutterin
Yeah that seems to be getting credited in the things I’ve read about the flu situation, although flu has also plummeted in places around the world with schools open
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