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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Feb 2021

      I'm flabbergasted here. This isn't a correct interpretation of vaccine efficacy—and that 95% number. It doesn't mean vaccines leave 1 in 20 people "unprotected". https://www.timesnews.net/living/wellness/5-reasons-to-wear-a-mask-even-after-you-re-vaccinated/article_382fb8e0-5bfc-11eb-9945-2315e7061dc1.html …pic.twitter.com/iDI1SOeIxk

      64 replies 335 retweets 2,081 likes
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    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Feb 2021

      I also personally disagree that "masks and distancing" are here to stay, at least in their current form, "until herd immunity"—we will likely get relaxations and new guidelines, especially for private behavior for vaccinated people depending on their risk levels long before that.

      10 replies 20 retweets 437 likes
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    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Feb 2021

      But at least that part is something to discuss! I hope we get a quick correction to the above quote, though.@LizSzabo

      2 replies 3 retweets 141 likes
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    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Feb 2021

      Correct. Vaccine efficacy is a relative measure. In the trials, it's a ratio among those who got symptomatic COVID—even if it was mild (which was the endpoint). It does not mean 1 in 20 unprotected. Whatever the source of error, correction needed. https://twitter.com/lyndon_bae_j/status/1361432394335735814 …pic.twitter.com/cJ7Z8lPgdY

      9 replies 79 retweets 369 likes
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    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Feb 2021

      Pfizer vaccine efficacy calculation from their EUA. The vaccinated & vaccinated groups are ~identical in size, so we can just compare cases. Only 8 vaccinated got symptomatic COVID (almost all mild) compared to 162 among unvaccinated. That's the 95%; it compares relative risk.pic.twitter.com/fDQuNF017n

      5 replies 61 retweets 290 likes
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      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Feb 2021

      Further, even if you were among the few who got symptomatic COVID after vaccination, it wasn't a case of being "unprotected"—there were no deaths, no hospitalizations among the vaccinated and the single "severe" case was borderline Sp02 93% and she needed no medical attention.

      2:54 PM - 15 Feb 2021
      • 38 Retweets
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      • victoriadavis387@gmail.com t.j. CCITT foxgrrl.32bis Ryszard Szarfenberg The Middle Man Urbanite Rendell Davis foxgrrl Ben Singer
      9 replies 38 retweets 329 likes
        1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Feb 2021

          In sum: 95% efficacy does not mean that 5% in the vaccine group got infected (not at all! Not even close! It was .04% for Pfizer trial) or that those who had symptomatic COVID despite vaccine were "unprotected": no greatly reduced severity, no hospitalization, no death.

          12 replies 107 retweets 445 likes
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        2. Rachel (she/her/hers)‏ @racharena 15 Feb 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          Family member was recently convinced not to get vaccinated by his antivaxxer wife when their nursing home was eligible. When he went to the hospital w/COVID, wife defended decision saying 6 other vaccinated people from the nursing home had COVID too. They survived. He didn't.

          1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
        3. Nicolai von Neudeck‏ @vonneudeck 15 Feb 2021
          Replying to @racharena

          😢

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        4. End of conversation
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        2. karkar‏ @kar_nels 15 Feb 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          I think same thing is misinterpreted about JnJ vaccine, people see 66% or some such and think 40% of us will still get sick. But it keeps getting better with time and 60 days out no deaths and almost no severe cases, thats really good thing, I'd take that right now thank you!

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. Marco‏ @MarcoNL88 15 Feb 2021
          Replying to @kar_nels @zeynep

          Exactly, efficacy is measured at 28 days but increases over time. Also 0 hospitalizations, so it solves the biggest problem of the pandemic with an almost 100% score. And then the very likely reduced transmission of those who are vaccinated is not even taken into account.

          0 replies 2 retweets 2 likes
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        1. Frida Ghitis‏Verified account @FridaGhitis 15 Feb 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          Any thoughts on this: 97% of Covid deaths in Israel last month were people who had not been vaccinated. So, 3% of those who died had been vaccinatedhttps://www.jpost.com/health-science/97-percent-of-recent-covid-19-deaths-were-not-vaccinated-netanyahu-658367 …

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        2. ThaddeusMcMonster‏ @ThadMcMonster 15 Feb 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          I'm confused. If we assume that nobody in the placebo group has resistance to the virus, then about 1% of those people were exposed enough to get the virus. We then assume that the same ratio of the vaccinated pop was exposed. Of the ~170 who were exposed, 8 got the virus.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. ThaddeusMcMonster‏ @ThadMcMonster 15 Feb 2021
          Replying to @ThadMcMonster @zeynep

          Meaning that 95% were protected, 5% weren't. Doesn't this jive with the 5% vulnerability statistic? Ignoring severity of infection, of course.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Sad Liberal‏ @Sad_Liberal 15 Feb 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          I am interested to know how the vaccines affect the incidence of long Covid.

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        1. Kill By Kill‏ @KillByKillPod 15 Feb 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          Exactly! It drops the morbidity and mortality rates drastically.

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