I get how it happened, so that's not the mystery. But there is a book to be written about societal and personal response to tail risk—because of course overreaction can be a problem too. Which is which and when? Not an easy problem, but a crucial one.
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Right, that was a *huge* factor obviously. But the influential institutions/currents on the "resistance" side also didn't take the other side of the bet till about early/mid-March. That was a key portion of the out-of-body feels for me.https://twitter.com/brian_g_moore/status/1360988128631209988 …
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It seems like fear of panic guided so many decisions. Are there actual panic events in history that justify such fear?
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And then all the „experts” saying we shouldn’t wear masks
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I remember going to the grocery store early feb 2020 with a mask on and being snickered at. Meanwhile, Covid had already taken hold in the US. Failure of leadership at all levels state, local & federal.
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I was telling people around me in Jan/feb that this is not looking good, and they thought I was worrying unnecessarily. Even I thought/hoped the same, but I thought worrying about it was the right (and the least) thing to do. I, being a nobody, had no other thing I could do..
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So many of us had similar experiences. More than a year ago, I warned friends and family that we were heading into an epidemic and urged them to get ready for a long period of danger and uncertainty. Most of them thought I had gone off the deep end.
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Yup. 'This will be like AIDS, it hardly killed anyone'.
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I think many people get programmed by experience to think, “there almost always isn’t a big change in my life when there is foreboding news... so I don’t need pay attention or change.” Obviously, they’ve never lived through a time that is beyond the “almost always.”
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Yeah, I will never forget the water cooler talk at work around that time. Really smart people were jumping to all sorts of conclusions, rapidly trying to influence people that it’s just the flu or masks are pointless and so on. Motivated reasoning ruled the day.
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I think something that caught me off guard was how urban folks who liked to dine out frequently were unusually radicalized when it came to early covid folk wisdom.
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