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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 3 Jan 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Adam Kucharski

      Do note that with exponential growth, more *is* very different. If a location had an R just below 1, and if the new variant tips it just over 1—with the same policies—the difference isn't minor. It's the difference between decline and uncontrolled spread.https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1345714389329051663 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Adam KucharskiVerified account @AdamJKucharski
      Next, suppose control can get R=0.8. In this scenario, 50% increase in transmission (R=1.2) tips epidemic into exponential growth. So we go from declining outbreak to one that sweeps uncontrolled through population. Hence 50% increase could mean many many fold more infections. 3/
      Show this thread
      2 replies 23 retweets 95 likes
      Show this thread
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 3 Jan 2021

      I wrote this article (on New Years Eve!) because I was seeing so much media & even public health officials inappropriately reassure the public that the "new variant isn't more deadly." Technically correct but profoundly misleading about the real threat. https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/12/virus-mutation-catastrophe/617531/ …pic.twitter.com/93Py6foXvO

      8 replies 37 retweets 143 likes
      Show this thread
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Jan 2021

      Another article advocating for an immediate trial for what happens when/if the booster is delayed, by @peterbachmd of Sloan-Kettering. He, too, suggests health-care workers as potential (could be others). "All breakthrough no follow-through" is costly. https://www.statnews.com/2021/01/04/stop-debating-first-shot-vs-set-aside-hospitals-should-compare-them/ …pic.twitter.com/XC2Mphm3gj

      4 replies 8 retweets 48 likes
      Show this thread
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Jan 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Isaac Bogoch

      WHO expert committee says delaying booster up to six weeks (given supply issues) rather than three is okay (based on existing data) and also says will update recommendations for delay as more data becomes available.https://twitter.com/BogochIsaac/status/1347545566679592960 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Isaac BogochVerified account @BogochIsaac
      Pfizer #COVID19 vaccine & new WHO recommendations: *You still need 2 doses *You should still try to dose as per schedule But due to supply, "interval between doses may be extended up to 42 days, on the basis of currently available clinical trial data". https://bit.ly/35jENK4 
      5 replies 32 retweets 85 likes
      Show this thread
    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Jan 2021

      Details from the WHO expert committee: "Countries experiencing exceptional epidemiological circumstances may consider delaying for a short period the administration of the second dose as a pragmatic approach to maximizing the number of individuals benefiting from a first dose."pic.twitter.com/INAZ6Iy6j5

      4 replies 14 retweets 74 likes
      Show this thread
    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 Jan 2021

      Biden administration will indeed stop keeping second dose in reserve and front-load the vaccine distribution. (NB: I advocated for a *trial* asap on delayed booster & not keeping second dose in reserve. I also support having these trades-off discussions).https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/08/politics/biden-vaccine-strategy/index.html …

      7 replies 20 retweets 115 likes
      Show this thread
    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 22 Jan 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Michael Nedelman

      So update. CDC says some delay is okay & "if the second dose is administered beyond these intervals, there is no need to restart the series." I will repeat my plea that such modifications need a randomization and data gathering component for more clarity.https://twitter.com/MikeNedelman/status/1352406577664450561 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Michael NedelmanVerified account @MikeNedelman
      Amid doubts over Covid vaccine availability, CDC appears to have updated guidance Ppl can wait "up to 6 weeks" for 2nd dose if they can't make recommended interval Vaccines not interchangeable... but if you got Pfizer & it's no longer available, OK to get Moderna—or vice versa
      Show this thread
      7 replies 29 retweets 128 likes
      Show this thread
    8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 24 Jan 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Martin Landray

      The man who leads the UK RECOVERY trials which produced incredibly useful information—including drugs that greatly reduce mortality—suggests a randomized trial of delayed dosing. Amazing how “controversies” evolve. 🤷‍♀️(Yes, we obviously should, as per first tweet in this thread.)https://twitter.com/MartinLandray/status/1353272270270181379 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Martin Landray @MartinLandray
      Looks like it’s time for a randomised trial of early vs later second dose. If start now, would have data to inform policy in Mar/Apr Might delay be better or worse? We don’t know. A large randomised trial would be very simple & very informative. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/23/vaccine-experts-defend-uk-decision-to-delay-second-pfizer-covid-jab?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other …
      4 replies 15 retweets 113 likes
      Show this thread
    9. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 12 Feb 2021

      Seems Michael Osterholm (of Biden Covid task force) calls for delaying the second dose a few months to increase coverage now. (Because I keep having to clarify: My co-authored piece called for *A TRIAL* exactly so such discussions could have better data). https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/podcasts-webinars/episode-42 …pic.twitter.com/f1AkWZjIrv

      10 replies 8 retweets 69 likes
      Show this thread
    10. John O'Neil‏Verified account @THAToneil 12 Feb 2021
      Replying to @zeynep

      Separately: NYS is still holding on to second doses rather than taking them from later supplies, despite both Azar/Slavitt statements to the contrary. The confusion: Azar didn't put the change in writing, and CDC guidelines on 2d dose timing appear to overlap. Can you raise this?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 12 Feb 2021
      Replying to @THAToneil

      Is this reported on? My experience here in NC is that we're definitely pushing out doses—all doses—as soon as they come now, which has really sped up things.

      7:56 AM - 12 Feb 2021
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. John O'Neil‏Verified account @THAToneil 12 Feb 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          Here's NYS turning down NYC's request. If you DM me I can tell you more, or email at johncjm@gmail.com.https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/ny-launching-36-more-vaccine-sites-in-next-3-days-as-variants-fuel-urgency-covid-tops-u-s-death-causes-in-2021/2866775/ …

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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