Do note that with exponential growth, more *is* very different. If a location had an R just below 1, and if the new variant tips it just over 1—with the same policies—the difference isn't minor. It's the difference between decline and uncontrolled spread.https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1345714389329051663 …
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I wrote this article (on New Years Eve!) because I was seeing so much media & even public health officials inappropriately reassure the public that the "new variant isn't more deadly." Technically correct but profoundly misleading about the real threat. https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/12/virus-mutation-catastrophe/617531/ …pic.twitter.com/93Py6foXvO
8 replies 37 retweets 143 likesShow this thread -
Another article advocating for an immediate trial for what happens when/if the booster is delayed, by
@peterbachmd of Sloan-Kettering. He, too, suggests health-care workers as potential (could be others). "All breakthrough no follow-through" is costly. https://www.statnews.com/2021/01/04/stop-debating-first-shot-vs-set-aside-hospitals-should-compare-them/ …pic.twitter.com/XC2Mphm3gj
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted Isaac Bogoch
WHO expert committee says delaying booster up to six weeks (given supply issues) rather than three is okay (based on existing data) and also says will update recommendations for delay as more data becomes available.https://twitter.com/BogochIsaac/status/1347545566679592960 …
zeynep tufekci added,
Isaac BogochVerified account @BogochIsaacPfizer#COVID19 vaccine & new WHO recommendations: *You still need 2 doses *You should still try to dose as per schedule But due to supply, "interval between doses may be extended up to 42 days, on the basis of currently available clinical trial data". https://bit.ly/35jENK45 replies 32 retweets 85 likesShow this thread -
Details from the WHO expert committee: "Countries experiencing exceptional epidemiological circumstances may consider delaying for a short period the administration of the second dose as a pragmatic approach to maximizing the number of individuals benefiting from a first dose."pic.twitter.com/INAZ6Iy6j5
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Biden administration will indeed stop keeping second dose in reserve and front-load the vaccine distribution. (NB: I advocated for a *trial* asap on delayed booster & not keeping second dose in reserve. I also support having these trades-off discussions).https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/08/politics/biden-vaccine-strategy/index.html …
7 replies 20 retweets 115 likesShow this thread -
zeynep tufekci Retweeted Michael Nedelman
So update. CDC says some delay is okay & "if the second dose is administered beyond these intervals, there is no need to restart the series." I will repeat my plea that such modifications need a randomization and data gathering component for more clarity.https://twitter.com/MikeNedelman/status/1352406577664450561 …
zeynep tufekci added,
Michael NedelmanVerified account @MikeNedelmanAmid doubts over Covid vaccine availability, CDC appears to have updated guidance Ppl can wait "up to 6 weeks" for 2nd dose if they can't make recommended interval Vaccines not interchangeable... but if you got Pfizer & it's no longer available, OK to get Moderna—or vice versaShow this thread7 replies 29 retweets 128 likesShow this thread -
zeynep tufekci Retweeted Martin Landray
The man who leads the UK RECOVERY trials which produced incredibly useful information—including drugs that greatly reduce mortality—suggests a randomized trial of delayed dosing. Amazing how “controversies” evolve.
(Yes, we obviously should, as per first tweet in this thread.)https://twitter.com/MartinLandray/status/1353272270270181379 …zeynep tufekci added,
Martin Landray @MartinLandrayLooks like it’s time for a randomised trial of early vs later second dose. If start now, would have data to inform policy in Mar/Apr Might delay be better or worse? We don’t know. A large randomised trial would be very simple & very informative. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/23/vaccine-experts-defend-uk-decision-to-delay-second-pfizer-covid-jab?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other …4 replies 15 retweets 113 likesShow this thread -
Seems Michael Osterholm (of Biden Covid task force) calls for delaying the second dose a few months to increase coverage now. (Because I keep having to clarify: My co-authored piece called for *A TRIAL* exactly so such discussions could have better data). https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/podcasts-webinars/episode-42 …pic.twitter.com/f1AkWZjIrv
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Replying to @zeynep
Separately: NYS is still holding on to second doses rather than taking them from later supplies, despite both Azar/Slavitt statements to the contrary. The confusion: Azar didn't put the change in writing, and CDC guidelines on 2d dose timing appear to overlap. Can you raise this?
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
Is this reported on? My experience here in NC is that we're definitely pushing out doses—all doses—as soon as they come now, which has really sped up things.
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Replying to @zeynep
Here's NYS turning down NYC's request. If you DM me I can tell you more, or email at johncjm@gmail.com.https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/ny-launching-36-more-vaccine-sites-in-next-3-days-as-variants-fuel-urgency-covid-tops-u-s-death-causes-in-2021/2866775/ …
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