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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @reluctantlyjoe

      (Even that macaque study had reduced viral loads but anyway). The current messaging is "we don't know" and it is widely interpreted as "they won't" because that's how it communicates—this has been a problem the whole pandemic. The "no evidence" statements need calibration.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @reluctantlyjoe

      "We have no evidence of immunity" or "we don't know if infection provides immunity" was the spring message when it should have been "of course we expect infection to provide immunity but we don't know for how long and how strong." The former is heard as "it does NOT."

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @reluctantlyjoe

      People who write papers, write grants etc. are used to a frequentist/null-hypothesis language. It's what gets published. It's what gets the grants. I publish, I have grants, I get the language. But it miscommunicates, badly because that's not how how people interpret "don' know."

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. joseph osmundson (all pronouns)‏ @reluctantlyjoe 9 Feb 2021
      Replying to @zeynep

      we should work on explaining to people what it means to not know! it's how we do most science. and science affects peoples lives (hello current world). glossing over complexity isn't right now or ever! invite people in to the process.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021
      Replying to @reluctantlyjoe

      Saying "we don't know" rather than "we expect that [insert strong priors]" "It is likely that but we're waiting for data..." is what glosses over complexity. How many people need to tell you that they hear/think vaccines do not prevent transmission? It's what's being messaged.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. joseph osmundson (all pronouns)‏ @reluctantlyjoe 9 Feb 2021
      Replying to @zeynep

      fwiw i say "we don't yet know, but we think it's likely...." which I think accurately represents the current state of the data, but emphasizes the need for ongoing NPIs

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021
      Replying to @reluctantlyjoe

      "We think it's likely" is not in the current messaging or guidelines.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. joseph osmundson (all pronouns)‏ @reluctantlyjoe 9 Feb 2021
      Replying to @zeynep

      i think we've reached a venn diagram good place and appreciate the convo. in my work, i definitely acknowledge the current state of the data. maybe you can walk back from "we know" which you did say a few times herein?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021
      Replying to @reluctantlyjoe

      I think I'm pretty clear on what I've been saying for months: we expect that they will reduce transmission, with increasing confidence over time. How much, yet unclear. What to do? Nuanced guidelines that take risk and private/public distinction into account and empower people.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    10. joseph osmundson (all pronouns)‏ @reluctantlyjoe 9 Feb 2021
      Replying to @zeynep

      to be clear: MONTHS AGO? there was NO CLEAR data IN HUMANS to support that at all. Months ago that was a WILDLY inappropriate take. you ended up probably being right. if you hadn't been, it could have literally been deadly.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021
      Replying to @reluctantlyjoe

      December. After phase III data. I didn’t just get lucky. (Been accused of that but that would be a bit uncanny at this point). Besides it wasn’t just me! That’s too much credit. Also, I always said communicate expectations, not false certainty. I advocated for more NPIs in Dec.

      8:59 PM - 9 Feb 2021
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. joseph osmundson (all pronouns)‏ @reluctantlyjoe 9 Feb 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          you're missing my point. we give people advice based on data, not hunches. if you gave people advice before we had data, you were hurting, not helping. if your definition of MONTHS is.... since december? bless you.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. joseph osmundson (all pronouns)‏ @reluctantlyjoe 9 Feb 2021
          Replying to @reluctantlyjoe @zeynep

          there's a reason professional scientists who work on viruses are conservative about what we KNOW. the cost of being wrong is literal dead bodies. I think we gotta remember that and be a little more careful about our messaging.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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