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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. joseph osmundson (all pronouns)‏ @reluctantlyjoe 9 Feb 2021
      Replying to @zeynep

      there are data that argue in both directions, have you forgotten about the non-human primate data showing lots of replication but no disease post vaccination? i am optimistic that it will prevent mild infection. until i'm more than optimistic, i'll be honest about what we know!

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021
      Replying to @reluctantlyjoe

      I'm asking about infectiousness, not whether there's 100% sterilizing immunity. Asking for real: do you believe that we have no idea if vaccines reduce infectiousness? That this is an unknown, and that "we don't know if vaccines will reduce transmission" is the correct statement?

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    3. joseph osmundson (all pronouns)‏ @reluctantlyjoe 9 Feb 2021
      Replying to @zeynep

      honestly "there's no idea" and "we don't know" and "we know" are different things. we're talking about science that will drive policy that will affect hundreds of millions (maybe billions) of human people. this is the highest need for scientific clarity and we aren't there yet!

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021
      Replying to @reluctantlyjoe

      I'm asking a very very specific question. Is your belief that we don't know if vaccines will reduce transmission and infectiousness among the vaccinated. Once we get through your belief on that, we can discuss adjacent/corollary, what makes people "go wild."

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    5. joseph osmundson (all pronouns)‏ @reluctantlyjoe 9 Feb 2021
      Replying to @zeynep

      actually you're using rhetorical dodges and not arguing in good faith. you think we KNOW that vaccines will prevent transmission. I disagree. i wish we knew that. we have evidence, but it's not strong enough to drive policy and messaging yet.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    6. joseph osmundson (all pronouns)‏ @reluctantlyjoe 9 Feb 2021
      Replying to @reluctantlyjoe @zeynep

      and after all this nonsense im very very glad that leaders in the NIH and CDC agree with me, because lord have mercy

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021
      Replying to @reluctantlyjoe

      Agree with you on what? That we don't know if the vaccines reduce infectiousness? I am genuinely asking. If that's your position, fine, I can argue the rest—which are sociology—based on your assumption. But you need to say what you think on that.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. joseph osmundson (all pronouns)‏ @reluctantlyjoe 9 Feb 2021
      Replying to @zeynep

      We don't yet have sufficient evidence to be certain that vaccination prevents mild/asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and therefore transmission. That is how people think about vaccines: I get the shot and i'm protected against getting or passing the virus.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021
      Replying to @reluctantlyjoe

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted A Marm Kilpatrick

      Okay. I'd say we *do* know that vaccination prevents mild symptomatic infection (endpoints in phase III trials) by ~%95%—somewhat less for variants. But it does. We do know that it reduces asymptomatic infection substantially. We know reduced viral loads.https://twitter.com/DiseaseEcology/status/1359213768488620034 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      A Marm Kilpatrick @DiseaseEcology
      Incorporating uncertainty from each component (except Ct-infectiousness correlation) w/ parametric boostrapping produces median reductions of 90% (87-93%) in infection & 91% (89-94%) of transmission (Note: many CIs were not symmetrical so median !=mean/point estimates): pic.twitter.com/4enSxpQvdK
      Show this thread
      3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    10. joseph osmundson (all pronouns)‏ @reluctantlyjoe 9 Feb 2021
      Replying to @zeynep

      this 95% CI is based on back of the envelope math with assumptions that I – a microbiologist – don't fully accept (including assumptions about Ct). This is not enough to KNOW something and you'd be laughed out of a committee meeting or rejected for peer review for claiming that

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021
      Replying to @reluctantlyjoe

      I didn't send it for the estimate, but the thread compiles the evidence that vaccines will reduce infectiousness. Every piece of evidence we have points in that direction, no? We aren't sure how much, but we know it will be some?

      8:04 PM - 9 Feb 2021
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. joseph osmundson (all pronouns)‏ @reluctantlyjoe 9 Feb 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          data in non-human primates showed infection in the nose but not disease in the lungs. figure 3a below: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.23.424138v1.full.pdf …

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. joseph osmundson (all pronouns)‏ @reluctantlyjoe 9 Feb 2021
          Replying to @reluctantlyjoe @zeynep

          i agree that the human data are compelling but – given that the results affect HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS OF PEOPLE – i do not think we KNOW the answer yet, no. but i think we just have a different cut off for what 'knowing' something means.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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