there are data that argue in both directions, have you forgotten about the non-human primate data showing lots of replication but no disease post vaccination? i am optimistic that it will prevent mild infection. until i'm more than optimistic, i'll be honest about what we know!
I didn't send it for the estimate, but the thread compiles the evidence that vaccines will reduce infectiousness. Every piece of evidence we have points in that direction, no? We aren't sure how much, but we know it will be some?
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data in non-human primates showed infection in the nose but not disease in the lungs. figure 3a below: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.23.424138v1.full.pdf …
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i agree that the human data are compelling but – given that the results affect HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS OF PEOPLE – i do not think we KNOW the answer yet, no. but i think we just have a different cut off for what 'knowing' something means.
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