provide evidence that we *KNOW* that transmission is inhibited please. what is your metric for KNOWING something that is going to affect literally hundreds of millions of human lives, because i think that's where we disagree.
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Replying to @reluctantlyjoe
zeynep tufekci Retweeted Aaron Richterman, MD
I don't know why it isn't clear, as I've been insisting for months and write everywhere, that we can say "we know it will blunt transmission somewhat, but we're waiting for more data for changes to guidelines." Here's a thread from Aaron, but there's more.https://twitter.com/AaronRichterman/status/1358778637638639619 …
zeynep tufekci added,
Aaron Richterman, MD @AaronRichterman12a. And real world data from Israel. Interesting analysis inferring vaccine status by age and following cycle thresholds over time, suggesting lower VL in vaccinees w infection. Cool time series. Caveat: unclear what symptom status is but assume mostly symptom prompted testing. https://twitter.com/erlichya/status/1358477762495930368 …Show this thread2 replies 1 retweet 10 likes -
Replying to @zeynep
you know i'm a microbiologist right. i disagree with what you've been writing for months and months. as do many other experts.
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Replying to @reluctantlyjoe
So do you think that we don't know if the vaccines will reduce transmission at all? That we just don't know? There is no evidence yet? It's a complete unknown?
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Replying to @zeynep
there are data that argue in both directions, have you forgotten about the non-human primate data showing lots of replication but no disease post vaccination? i am optimistic that it will prevent mild infection. until i'm more than optimistic, i'll be honest about what we know!
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Replying to @reluctantlyjoe
I'm asking about infectiousness, not whether there's 100% sterilizing immunity. Asking for real: do you believe that we have no idea if vaccines reduce infectiousness? That this is an unknown, and that "we don't know if vaccines will reduce transmission" is the correct statement?
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Replying to @zeynep
honestly "there's no idea" and "we don't know" and "we know" are different things. we're talking about science that will drive policy that will affect hundreds of millions (maybe billions) of human people. this is the highest need for scientific clarity and we aren't there yet!
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Replying to @reluctantlyjoe
I'm asking a very very specific question. Is your belief that we don't know if vaccines will reduce transmission and infectiousness among the vaccinated. Once we get through your belief on that, we can discuss adjacent/corollary, what makes people "go wild."
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Replying to @zeynep
actually you're using rhetorical dodges and not arguing in good faith. you think we KNOW that vaccines will prevent transmission. I disagree. i wish we knew that. we have evidence, but it's not strong enough to drive policy and messaging yet.
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Replying to @reluctantlyjoe @zeynep
and after all this nonsense im very very glad that leaders in the NIH and CDC agree with me, because lord have mercy
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Agree with you on what? That we don't know if the vaccines reduce infectiousness? I am genuinely asking. If that's your position, fine, I can argue the rest—which are sociology—based on your assumption. But you need to say what you think on that.
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Replying to @zeynep
We don't yet have sufficient evidence to be certain that vaccination prevents mild/asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and therefore transmission. That is how people think about vaccines: I get the shot and i'm protected against getting or passing the virus.
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Replying to @reluctantlyjoe
zeynep tufekci Retweeted A Marm Kilpatrick
Okay. I'd say we *do* know that vaccination prevents mild symptomatic infection (endpoints in phase III trials) by ~%95%—somewhat less for variants. But it does. We do know that it reduces asymptomatic infection substantially. We know reduced viral loads.https://twitter.com/DiseaseEcology/status/1359213768488620034 …
zeynep tufekci added,
A Marm Kilpatrick @DiseaseEcologyIncorporating uncertainty from each component (except Ct-infectiousness correlation) w/ parametric boostrapping produces median reductions of 90% (87-93%) in infection & 91% (89-94%) of transmission (Note: many CIs were not symmetrical so median !=mean/point estimates): pic.twitter.com/4enSxpQvdKShow this thread3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes - Show replies
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