So, I'm not going to tag all the folks I've had disagreements with for *months* now, since December, who didn't believe me that our bungled messaging on post-vaccine transmission was fueling vaccine hesitancy.
How many examples have we heard now? I hear this every single day. https://t.co/AmOgwNgx39
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To make it clear, the remedy isn't to give false or unsubstantiated hope, but to get out of the "we don't know" trap when we *do* have some sense of the direction, but need more clarity with data (which we can say), and also to emphasize the real upside!
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted joseph osmundson (all pronouns)
See what people accuse me of, when I make the most basic point? That I suggested that we "just lie to people", or "express certainty about something we don't know." Exactly the problem that I'm talking about.https://twitter.com/reluctantlyjoe/status/1359333090573881350 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted joseph osmundson (all pronouns)
So worth dissecting. The fear is "people are gonna wanna.. go wild" if they hear the correct message that we do expect the vaccines to reduce transmission, but we're waiting for more data before relaxing the guidance. So we say "we don't know" when we do.https://twitter.com/reluctantlyjoe/status/1359340516689723394 …
zeynep tufekci added,
joseph osmundson (all pronouns) @reluctantlyjoeReplying to @MattNoahSmith @jbender22 @zeynepi'm great with HOPE! i love HOPE! and yet it's critically important that – while vaccines are scarce – we stay the course on NPIs, vaccinated or not. *that* messaging is actually hard. People are gonna wanna get the shot and go wild! And – for a million reasons – we can't do that11 replies 28 retweets 284 likesShow this thread -
Replying to @zeynep
provide evidence that we *KNOW* that transmission is inhibited please. what is your metric for KNOWING something that is going to affect literally hundreds of millions of human lives, because i think that's where we disagree.
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Replying to @reluctantlyjoe
zeynep tufekci Retweeted Aaron Richterman, MD
I don't know why it isn't clear, as I've been insisting for months and write everywhere, that we can say "we know it will blunt transmission somewhat, but we're waiting for more data for changes to guidelines." Here's a thread from Aaron, but there's more.https://twitter.com/AaronRichterman/status/1358778637638639619 …
zeynep tufekci added,
Aaron Richterman, MD @AaronRichterman12a. And real world data from Israel. Interesting analysis inferring vaccine status by age and following cycle thresholds over time, suggesting lower VL in vaccinees w infection. Cool time series. Caveat: unclear what symptom status is but assume mostly symptom prompted testing. https://twitter.com/erlichya/status/1358477762495930368 …Show this thread2 replies 1 retweet 10 likes -
Replying to @zeynep
you know i'm a microbiologist right. i disagree with what you've been writing for months and months. as do many other experts.
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Replying to @reluctantlyjoe
So do you think that we don't know if the vaccines will reduce transmission at all? That we just don't know? There is no evidence yet? It's a complete unknown?
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Replying to @zeynep
there are data that argue in both directions, have you forgotten about the non-human primate data showing lots of replication but no disease post vaccination? i am optimistic that it will prevent mild infection. until i'm more than optimistic, i'll be honest about what we know!
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I'm asking about infectiousness, not whether there's 100% sterilizing immunity. Asking for real: do you believe that we have no idea if vaccines reduce infectiousness? That this is an unknown, and that "we don't know if vaccines will reduce transmission" is the correct statement?
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Replying to @zeynep
honestly "there's no idea" and "we don't know" and "we know" are different things. we're talking about science that will drive policy that will affect hundreds of millions (maybe billions) of human people. this is the highest need for scientific clarity and we aren't there yet!
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Replying to @reluctantlyjoe
I'm asking a very very specific question. Is your belief that we don't know if vaccines will reduce transmission and infectiousness among the vaccinated. Once we get through your belief on that, we can discuss adjacent/corollary, what makes people "go wild."
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