So, I'm not going to tag all the folks I've had disagreements with for *months* now, since December, who didn't believe me that our bungled messaging on post-vaccine transmission was fueling vaccine hesitancy.
How many examples have we heard now? I hear this every single day. https://t.co/AmOgwNgx39
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To make it clear, the remedy isn't to give false or unsubstantiated hope, but to get out of the "we don't know" trap when we *do* have some sense of the direction, but need more clarity with data (which we can say), and also to emphasize the real upside!
13 replies 44 retweets 581 likesShow this thread -
zeynep tufekci Retweeted joseph osmundson (all pronouns)
See what people accuse me of, when I make the most basic point? That I suggested that we "just lie to people", or "express certainty about something we don't know." Exactly the problem that I'm talking about.https://twitter.com/reluctantlyjoe/status/1359333090573881350 …
zeynep tufekci added,
9 replies 13 retweets 349 likesShow this thread -
zeynep tufekci Retweeted joseph osmundson (all pronouns)
So worth dissecting. The fear is "people are gonna wanna.. go wild" if they hear the correct message that we do expect the vaccines to reduce transmission, but we're waiting for more data before relaxing the guidance. So we say "we don't know" when we do.https://twitter.com/reluctantlyjoe/status/1359340516689723394 …
zeynep tufekci added,
joseph osmundson (all pronouns) @reluctantlyjoeReplying to @MattNoahSmith @jbender22 @zeynepi'm great with HOPE! i love HOPE! and yet it's critically important that – while vaccines are scarce – we stay the course on NPIs, vaccinated or not. *that* messaging is actually hard. People are gonna wanna get the shot and go wild! And – for a million reasons – we can't do that11 replies 28 retweets 284 likesShow this thread -
Replying to @zeynep
provide evidence that we *KNOW* that transmission is inhibited please. what is your metric for KNOWING something that is going to affect literally hundreds of millions of human lives, because i think that's where we disagree.
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Replying to @reluctantlyjoe
zeynep tufekci Retweeted Aaron Richterman, MD
I don't know why it isn't clear, as I've been insisting for months and write everywhere, that we can say "we know it will blunt transmission somewhat, but we're waiting for more data for changes to guidelines." Here's a thread from Aaron, but there's more.https://twitter.com/AaronRichterman/status/1358778637638639619 …
zeynep tufekci added,
Aaron Richterman, MD @AaronRichterman12a. And real world data from Israel. Interesting analysis inferring vaccine status by age and following cycle thresholds over time, suggesting lower VL in vaccinees w infection. Cool time series. Caveat: unclear what symptom status is but assume mostly symptom prompted testing. https://twitter.com/erlichya/status/1358477762495930368 …Show this thread2 replies 1 retweet 10 likes
I'm not, never have, suggested we lie to people and that's terrible. There was more data today; reduced viral loads in vaccinated people. You can absolutely tell people to keep up NPIs while telling them that we expect transmission to blunt. "We don't know" isn't that message.
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Replying to @zeynep
we dont have good understanding of infectious dose, we don't know the correlates of immune protection, we don't yet understand the relationship between Ct (which depends more on viral course than anything else) and transmissibility because it doesn't measure infectious virus
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Replying to @reluctantlyjoe @zeynep
look at how many things we don't know!!!!
0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
End of conversation
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