So, I'm not going to tag all the folks I've had disagreements with for *months* now, since December, who didn't believe me that our bungled messaging on post-vaccine transmission was fueling vaccine hesitancy.
How many examples have we heard now? I hear this every single day. https://t.co/AmOgwNgx39
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See what people accuse me of, when I make the most basic point? That I suggested that we "just lie to people", or "express certainty about something we don't know." Exactly the problem that I'm talking about.https://twitter.com/reluctantlyjoe/status/1359333090573881350 …
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So worth dissecting. The fear is "people are gonna wanna.. go wild" if they hear the correct message that we do expect the vaccines to reduce transmission, but we're waiting for more data before relaxing the guidance. So we say "we don't know" when we do.https://twitter.com/reluctantlyjoe/status/1359340516689723394 …
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This is a version of "if we tell people to mask up, they will stop distancing" which I heard from WHO and other experts early on why they didn't like masks. Sociologically it was the wrong guess and it was quickly debunked with data. People going "wild" fear has hampered so much.
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One can dismiss these as anecdotes but they're everywhere. Plus, we do have polling that shows transmission as key motivator for vaccines. The person I quoted about our terrible messaging was an infectious diseases epidemiologist/scientist at Johns Hopkins University, by the way.pic.twitter.com/Q1gPFnLXog
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I'd seen this in another poll, too. Among those most motivated to get the vaccine? Reason number one and two is they believe vaccine will protect *others*. Resuming normal life as important as not getting COVID. (Wish they had asked this to the hesitant!). https://apnorc.org/projects/safety-concerns-remain-main-driver-of-vaccine-hesitancy/ …pic.twitter.com/mf0zTM12Em
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The success of these vaccines may be among the best tools. Willingness inched up (yeay!) and that's in line with a recent experiment that showed telling people others want the vaccine (true!) helps convince them, too. We can accurately inform *and* create appropriate incentives.
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you'll be able to get a vaccine before then, 99% sure.
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I worry that vaccine hesitancy is a theoretical concept to many folks. And since people on twitter are itching to get vaccinated that most folks--even those at grave risk of COVID-19 related morbidity and mortality--are as well. Pro-tip: many aren't.https://twitter.com/sdbaral/status/1346107956794970112 …
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Everyone I talked to who's vaccinated younger groups or access to federal/state data has been very, very worried. The initial wave is the super eager (yeay!) so that's masking the other current. I'm working with the eager groups now and it's pretty amazing.
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