Why is overdispersion helpful? Because most cases don't don't transmit at all, so a lot of room for error, but also introductions (and luck) does matter. Countries which moved to quickly limit such introductions by testing/quarantining/limiting travelers have mostly done better.
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Also, countries like South Korea that aggressively attacked their own early really unlucky superspreading events have done a lot better. (As opposed to the flu-type approach where there's not much sense in super-aggressive containment once it is spreading in the community).
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Here's my article on overdispersion, if you're wondering what on earth I'm talking about.https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/ …
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There were three key things that needed to be immediately assimilated into our policies: aerosol-transmission, presymptomatic infectiousness and overdispersion. The first was actively resisted by key players, the second accepted but late, and the third.. known but not acted upon.
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Sturgis + Trump rallies + new variants ... ...
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I don't think there is a single outdoor only superspreading event, though.
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I should read the article but we are acknowledging that Mardi Gras is 2+ weeks long. And didn't we know that the virus strain in New Orleans came from New York
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This says the first case likely came from Texas.https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/article_e4095910-6af1-11eb-a3bc-336456794a5b.html …
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Zeynep, it's so great to have finally met you from your print interview with
@antoniogm and chat with@SamHarrisOrg. Also, your substack is fantastic. -
Thank you!
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