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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021

    Interesting preprint alert. Remember how New Orleans got hit badly, early? They trace the ~50,000 cases likely to a *single* introduction that fueled the Mardi Gras superspreading event. Overdispersion: helpful if taken seriously, catastrophe if ignored. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.05.21251235v1.full.pdf …pic.twitter.com/lVQfPKS7J3

    6:06 PM - 9 Feb 2021
    • 283 Retweets
    • 874 Likes
    • #TeamRosenkohl #NeinZuHomöopathie Beverly ceraphins Hannah Denham DomTheBoss Judith Black Katrin Zöfel Kristina Revay Jerry
    19 replies 283 retweets 874 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021

        Why is overdispersion helpful? Because most cases don't don't transmit at all, so a lot of room for error, but also introductions (and luck) does matter. Countries which moved to quickly limit such introductions by testing/quarantining/limiting travelers have mostly done better.

        1 reply 10 retweets 155 likes
        Show this thread
      3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021

        Also, countries like South Korea that aggressively attacked their own early really unlucky superspreading events have done a lot better. (As opposed to the flu-type approach where there's not much sense in super-aggressive containment once it is spreading in the community).

        3 replies 8 retweets 118 likes
        Show this thread
      4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021

        Here's my article on overdispersion, if you're wondering what on earth I'm talking about.https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/ …

        11 replies 68 retweets 252 likes
        Show this thread
      5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021

        There were three key things that needed to be immediately assimilated into our policies: aerosol-transmission, presymptomatic infectiousness and overdispersion. The first was actively resisted by key players, the second accepted but late, and the third.. known but not acted upon.

        5 replies 66 retweets 297 likes
        Show this thread
      6. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. JB Holston‏ @jholston 9 Feb 2021
        Replying to @zeynep

        Sturgis + Trump rallies + new variants ... ...

        1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
      3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021
        Replying to @jholston

        I don't think there is a single outdoor only superspreading event, though.

        4 replies 1 retweet 23 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Amy‏ @blueWRL 9 Feb 2021
        Replying to @zeynep

        I should read the article but we are acknowledging that Mardi Gras is 2+ weeks long. And didn't we know that the virus strain in New Orleans came from New York

        1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
      3. Chris Goebel‏ @benkwhiskey 9 Feb 2021
        Replying to @blueWRL @zeynep

        This says the first case likely came from Texas.https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/article_e4095910-6af1-11eb-a3bc-336456794a5b.html …

        1 reply 2 retweets 6 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Craig Healy‏ @craigjhealy1 9 Feb 2021
        Replying to @zeynep

        Zeynep, it's so great to have finally met you from your print interview with @antoniogm and chat with @SamHarrisOrg. Also, your substack is fantastic.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021
        Replying to @craigjhealy1 @antoniogm @SamHarrisOrg

        Thank you!

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation

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