its remarkable how frequently garret gets shit wrong even by the low standards of science journalismhttps://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1359225865939406857 …
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Replying to @halvorz
I muted her and EFD back in the days of snakes and HIV inserts. They at least don't have some weird committed ideology like the GBD folks but...very low signal:noise
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Same muting strategy. Some apocalyptic tweets from people, including this pair (and, ahem, a former CDC director (and head of IHME)) I think say more about their own outlook on life than they do about the science or data.
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But how are people not reading all the papers supposed to navigate this? Sources look legit enough. I have friends ready to jump off the ledge because they think this will never end because "vaccines don't prevent transmission" or "variants have made them six-fold less effective"
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It's a very difficult information landscape for most people to navigate. Even experts of all stripes get confused or locked into outdated models of the evidence constantly. I try not to blame anyone for even crazy seeming ideas about the pandemic, we're not organized for this.
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So, this is fascinating. I think there is legit intra-science disagreement. I tend not to have an opinion on that part as it’s not my field. There is also a tension between what I’m calling philosophical frequentism vs a meta approach: focusing on mechanisms, priors, trade-offs.
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Philosophical frequentism = dichotomization into "known fact" and "no / not enough evidence for claim"?
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Yeah. “We have no idea if infection confers any immunity” in spring. “We have no idea if vaccines will reduce transmission” now. Don’t get me wrong, I’m fine with “we don’t know enough to change policy yet.” But that’s different than we have no idea.
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Similarly, rejecting source control with masks because there’s no RCT despite lab work and precautionary principle. (Also you would have to do a cluster randomized trial not a clinical trial because source control is an ecological variable)
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Surge in summer=“This must not be seasonal”. Rather than you can have a surge out of season with a naïve population. You’ll still likely get hit badly in winter since it’s a coronavirus.
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