its remarkable how frequently garret gets shit wrong even by the low standards of science journalismhttps://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1359225865939406857 …
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Philosophical frequentism = dichotomization into "known fact" and "no / not enough evidence for claim"?
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Yeah. “We have no idea if infection confers any immunity” in spring. “We have no idea if vaccines will reduce transmission” now. Don’t get me wrong, I’m fine with “we don’t know enough to change policy yet.” But that’s different than we have no idea.
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I’m definitely im favor of the ladder and waded into stuff there—not always welcome.
It will be very interesting to go back retrospectively, and to separate the clinical reflexes (valid in their domain: do no harm, null hypothesis) from public health approaches (trade-offs). -
I'm surprised you call it a public health approach though, since so much of Western public health has been lagging behind accumulating evidence while waiting for a moment of certainty. Isn't that what you're calling the "clinical" approach to evidence (e.g. wait for the RCT)?
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