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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Laurie Garrett

      Oh come on. "95% efficacy" for either Moderna or Pfizer in the FDA process DOES NOT mean "95% less severe hospitalizations and death in vax'ed individuals." This is a strikingly incorrect "correction."https://twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1359219118315036673 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Laurie GarrettVerified account @Laurie_Garrett
      This is a point I have made over and over again, yet it is popularly still believed that a "95% efficacy" = a 95% reduction in spread of the virus. It means nothing of the kind. Under #COVID19 @FDA process, it means 95% less severe hospitalization & death in vax'ed individuals. https://twitter.com/NFIDvaccines/status/1359217379394392071 …
      26 replies 230 retweets 1,530 likes
      Show this thread
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021

      The efficacy endpoint for these trials has been "any symptomatic disease"—even sniffles, headache, fever. That's what the 95% refers to, not "less severe hospitalization & death" which, in the trials (all the trials) have been reduced by 100%. Transmission, is another thing.

      20 replies 81 retweets 900 likes
      Show this thread
    3. John Skylar, PhD‏ @JohnSkylar 9 Feb 2021
      Replying to @zeynep

      Not just "any symptomatic disease." Any symptomatic disease that is confirmed to occur concurrently with PCR-positivity for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Without the PCR-positivity, patients are rightly not counted in the numbers of COVID-19 cases.

      0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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    5. John Skylar, PhD‏ @JohnSkylar 9 Feb 2021
      Replying to @zeynep

      Actually, yes, at least according to the PFE briefing book: "Vaccine efficacy for the primary endpoint against confirmed COVID-19..." Operative phrase being "confirmed." Confirmation was performed using RT-PCR. These are all confirmed cases.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. John Skylar, PhD‏ @JohnSkylar 9 Feb 2021
      Replying to @JohnSkylar @zeynep

      There were thousands more "suspected, unconfirmed" (ie symptoms of disease but PCR-negative) cases that are described in a detailed section of the PFE briefing book separately. These were (correctly) not included as COVID-19 cases.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021
      Replying to @JohnSkylar

      Sorry, too curt, should have said, actually not clear if all trials do. Agree with Moderna and Pfizer, but I was unclear from the Janssen press release. (They have it confirmed for moderate, but I'm unsure about mild cut-off. But you are correct, sorry will delete the curt one).

      12:48 PM - 9 Feb 2021
      • 1 Like
      • John Skylar, PhD
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. John Skylar, PhD‏ @JohnSkylar 9 Feb 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          Ah. Yeah, I was just talking about the mRNA vaccines. Agree that mileage varies for other trials--thanks for clearing up your intended meaning & good to speak with you.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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