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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Laurie Garrett

      Oh come on. "95% efficacy" for either Moderna or Pfizer in the FDA process DOES NOT mean "95% less severe hospitalizations and death in vax'ed individuals." This is a strikingly incorrect "correction."https://twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1359219118315036673 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Laurie GarrettVerified account @Laurie_Garrett
      This is a point I have made over and over again, yet it is popularly still believed that a "95% efficacy" = a 95% reduction in spread of the virus. It means nothing of the kind. Under #COVID19 @FDA process, it means 95% less severe hospitalization & death in vax'ed individuals. https://twitter.com/NFIDvaccines/status/1359217379394392071 …
      26 replies 230 retweets 1,530 likes
      Show this thread
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021

      The efficacy endpoint for these trials has been "any symptomatic disease"—even sniffles, headache, fever. That's what the 95% refers to, not "less severe hospitalization & death" which, in the trials (all the trials) have been reduced by 100%. Transmission, is another thing.

      20 replies 81 retweets 900 likes
      Show this thread
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted A Marm Kilpatrick

      Here's a very smart thread based on actual data (not the nonsense "we have no idea" that's become standard) on transmission with initial estimate of about 90% reduction in transmission. Not the final word, but there will be SOME transmission reduction.https://twitter.com/DiseaseEcology/status/1359213768488620034 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      A Marm Kilpatrick @DiseaseEcology
      Incorporating uncertainty from each component (except Ct-infectiousness correlation) w/ parametric boostrapping produces median reductions of 90% (87-93%) in infection & 91% (89-94%) of transmission (Note: many CIs were not symmetrical so median !=mean/point estimates): pic.twitter.com/4enSxpQvdK
      Show this thread
      7 replies 130 retweets 525 likes
      Show this thread
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021

      It makes total sense to wait for more data to estimate transmission reduction to guide policy in a more fine-grained matter. That's not the same as "we don't know" or "we have no idea." Multiple trials have already measured some relevant data and we've had more recently.

      3 replies 13 retweets 282 likes
      Show this thread
    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021

      So to repeat: the Pfizer/Moderna trials endpoint was *any* symptomatic disease. So even sniffles or headache counts. All the vaccines* seems to work well against severe disease, but especially well against deaths/hospitalizations. (*I can't make sense of ChAdOx1right now).

      5 replies 24 retweets 298 likes
      Show this thread
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021

      And we've had multiple data points coming in about transmission reduction since December. From the trials, from labs, and pretty soon we will start getting data from vaccinated people in the community. We're not in some totally agnostic "we have no idea" land here.

      12:13 PM - 9 Feb 2021
      • 14 Retweets
      • 268 Likes
      • ❄️🐾🐺Wolfie🐾❄🌊🆘🐎🐕🐈🐄🦦🐿🦩🐢🐬🐋BidenWon🌊 Allways John Henry Towne Social✽Fly Ali Jadbabaie ॱ Deacon Blue Herman Cains Ghost #KillTheFilibuster 🌊 🌹 Liz "The Mask Goes Over Your Nose AND Mouth" Ditz
      10 replies 14 retweets 268 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 19 Feb 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Laurie Garrett

          I just want to add that to this thread and note that the below is nonsense. With all due respect to her good work before, this has become an unacceptable situation. (And I’ve ignored multiple other examples).https://twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1362814447656587264 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Laurie GarrettVerified account @Laurie_Garrett
          3/ What we are looking at is "vaccine resistance" -- it's akin to antibiotic resistance that can be so strong in some bacteria that they are 100% incurable infections. In this study, the spectre of #COVID19 #vaccines being rendered useless looms -- NOT assured, but ominous.
          Show this thread
          15 replies 58 retweets 349 likes
          Show this thread
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 19 Feb 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Laurie Garrett

          Oh I forgot. The below is false, too. There is no such “20-fold decrease in vax efficacy” or anything of the sort due to variants. (The best I can make out of this is she’s confusing lab reports about neutralizing antibodies with vaccine efficacy, something very very different).https://twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1362814446708654087 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Laurie GarrettVerified account @Laurie_Garrett
          2/ Taking just one dose of either vaccine? VERY bad idea. A 30-fold lower virus-fighting capacity with 1 dose. The UK B.1.1.7 variant isn't a vax problem. BUT the P1 (Brazil), P2 (Japan) variants --20-fold decrease in vax efficacy. The SoAfrican (B1351) -- 100-fold decrease. MORE
          Show this thread
          12 replies 17 retweets 187 likes
          Show this thread
        4. End of conversation
        1. whiskars‏ @blograham 9 Feb 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          Thank you

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. MFT‏ @mthead141 9 Feb 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          very clarifying, thanks as always

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Marquis ChaCha‏ @ChachaMarquis 9 Feb 2021
          Replying to @mthead141 @zeynep

          I mean very opinionated but I think it’s worth acknowledging at every step why the scientific community doesn’t make formal pronouncements and recommendations based on incomplete evidence. They aren’t stupid.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. David Leiser دافيد דויד‏ @Professologue 9 Feb 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          There are early results from Israël. There is reduction, but the estimate is stil a huge range (i think 20-80%)

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Dr.EB‏ @LNBel 9 Feb 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          I've been contributing to the data here - anyone can do it.https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/vsafe.html …

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Chuck Darwin‏ @Chas_Darwin 9 Feb 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          @threadreaderapp unroll please

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Thread Reader App‏ @threadreaderapp 9 Feb 2021
          Replying to @Chas_Darwin

          Sorry this content is not available on Thread Reader 😕 It has been removed by the author. 🤖

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Isaac Speer, Ph.D.‏ @speer_isaac 19 Feb 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          I heard Dr Kim-Farley of UCLA repeat this nonsense on NPR this morning. He said "the jury's still out" on transmission. It's SOOOO frustrating. As a social scientist, I want people to trust science, and I feel like this white-lying leads to distrust.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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