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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Laurie Garrett

      Oh come on. "95% efficacy" for either Moderna or Pfizer in the FDA process DOES NOT mean "95% less severe hospitalizations and death in vax'ed individuals." This is a strikingly incorrect "correction."https://twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1359219118315036673 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Laurie GarrettVerified account @Laurie_Garrett
      This is a point I have made over and over again, yet it is popularly still believed that a "95% efficacy" = a 95% reduction in spread of the virus. It means nothing of the kind. Under #COVID19 @FDA process, it means 95% less severe hospitalization & death in vax'ed individuals. https://twitter.com/NFIDvaccines/status/1359217379394392071 …
      26 replies 230 retweets 1,530 likes
      Show this thread
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021

      The efficacy endpoint for these trials has been "any symptomatic disease"—even sniffles, headache, fever. That's what the 95% refers to, not "less severe hospitalization & death" which, in the trials (all the trials) have been reduced by 100%. Transmission, is another thing.

      20 replies 81 retweets 900 likes
      Show this thread
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted A Marm Kilpatrick

      Here's a very smart thread based on actual data (not the nonsense "we have no idea" that's become standard) on transmission with initial estimate of about 90% reduction in transmission. Not the final word, but there will be SOME transmission reduction.https://twitter.com/DiseaseEcology/status/1359213768488620034 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      A Marm Kilpatrick @DiseaseEcology
      Incorporating uncertainty from each component (except Ct-infectiousness correlation) w/ parametric boostrapping produces median reductions of 90% (87-93%) in infection & 91% (89-94%) of transmission (Note: many CIs were not symmetrical so median !=mean/point estimates): pic.twitter.com/4enSxpQvdK
      Show this thread
      7 replies 130 retweets 525 likes
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    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021
      Replying to @jbarro

      Different things. "Any infection" is different than any disease. A silent infection (no symptoms)? Some of that may well happen, but such silent infections are almost certainly not going to be very infectious. See the thread I linked for an approximate calculation.

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @jbarro

      But at this point, I don't think anyone serious is proposing we don't know (we do have a lot of data at this point), and obviously, the default position was at least *some* reduction. (Reduces disease=of course likely to reduce transmission). How much? Estimates are starting.

      12:03 PM - 9 Feb 2021
      • 9 Likes
      • Ideas Dr. M. Tullius "No Mercy for Seditionists" Cicero BundlebranchblockMD👁️👁️ Linn Marie Althing Angela Taylor Noumenon Pierre DeTaco 🌐 Leon
      3 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
        1. Pierre DeTaco  🌐‏ @pierredetaco 9 Feb 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @jbarro

          Thank you for always being on top of this stuff!

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Josh Barro‏Verified account @jbarro 9 Feb 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          @asymmetricinfo Oh I see, IE is an input to the transmission calculation

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Megan McArdle‏Verified account @asymmetricinfo 9 Feb 2021
          Replying to @jbarro @zeynep

          And hey, 91% is a great number! Suggests even the infected are slightly less likely to transmit.

          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Julie Liss‏ @julie_liss 9 Feb 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @jbarro

          What do you think of this proposed strategy?https://www.chicagotribune.com/opinion/commentary/ct-opinion-covid-vaccine-johnson-college-students-20210208-d4mf3vcywfhe5grq2x5kgq3mvy-story.html …

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