Oh come on. "95% efficacy" for either Moderna or Pfizer in the FDA process DOES NOT mean "95% less severe hospitalizations and death in vax'ed individuals." This is a strikingly incorrect "correction."https://twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1359219118315036673 …
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It makes total sense to wait for more data to estimate transmission reduction to guide policy in a more fine-grained matter. That's not the same as "we don't know" or "we have no idea." Multiple trials have already measured some relevant data and we've had more recently.
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So to repeat: the Pfizer/Moderna trials endpoint was *any* symptomatic disease. So even sniffles or headache counts. All the vaccines* seems to work well against severe disease, but especially well against deaths/hospitalizations. (*I can't make sense of ChAdOx1right now).
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And we've had multiple data points coming in about transmission reduction since December. From the trials, from labs, and pretty soon we will start getting data from vaccinated people in the community. We're not in some totally agnostic "we have no idea" land here.
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I just want to add that to this thread and note that the below is nonsense. With all due respect to her good work before, this has become an unacceptable situation. (And I’ve ignored multiple other examples).https://twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1362814447656587264 …
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Oh I forgot. The below is false, too. There is no such “20-fold decrease in vax efficacy” or anything of the sort due to variants. (The best I can make out of this is she’s confusing lab reports about neutralizing antibodies with vaccine efficacy, something very very different).https://twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1362814446708654087 …
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I feel like reduced transmission is necessarily implied by the near universal belief among experts that the vaccines can get us to herd immunity, yeah? I understand they want to be cautious, but the belief in herd-immunity as a consequence of these vaccines seems to be telling
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Not sure that's what they're measuring; might be measuring transmission as a population probability.
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Great, can anyone tell me where to find R0 for LA county ? Last week kfi radio reported 0.75, what is it this week ?
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