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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Laurie Garrett

      Oh come on. "95% efficacy" for either Moderna or Pfizer in the FDA process DOES NOT mean "95% less severe hospitalizations and death in vax'ed individuals." This is a strikingly incorrect "correction."https://twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1359219118315036673 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Laurie GarrettVerified account @Laurie_Garrett
      This is a point I have made over and over again, yet it is popularly still believed that a "95% efficacy" = a 95% reduction in spread of the virus. It means nothing of the kind. Under #COVID19 @FDA process, it means 95% less severe hospitalization & death in vax'ed individuals. https://twitter.com/NFIDvaccines/status/1359217379394392071 …
      26 replies 230 retweets 1,530 likes
      Show this thread
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021

      The efficacy endpoint for these trials has been "any symptomatic disease"—even sniffles, headache, fever. That's what the 95% refers to, not "less severe hospitalization & death" which, in the trials (all the trials) have been reduced by 100%. Transmission, is another thing.

      11:45 AM - 9 Feb 2021
      • 81 Retweets
      • 900 Likes
      • Ashley M Marks eys Micah Lapping-Carr Crab doing everything wrong 🦀 🅹 (🚰🚩🏴×💉💉💉), sojourner Indivisible Burbank Mandy Björn (WV)essman
      20 replies 81 retweets 900 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted A Marm Kilpatrick

          Here's a very smart thread based on actual data (not the nonsense "we have no idea" that's become standard) on transmission with initial estimate of about 90% reduction in transmission. Not the final word, but there will be SOME transmission reduction.https://twitter.com/DiseaseEcology/status/1359213768488620034 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          A Marm Kilpatrick @DiseaseEcology
          Incorporating uncertainty from each component (except Ct-infectiousness correlation) w/ parametric boostrapping produces median reductions of 90% (87-93%) in infection & 91% (89-94%) of transmission (Note: many CIs were not symmetrical so median !=mean/point estimates): pic.twitter.com/4enSxpQvdK
          Show this thread
          7 replies 130 retweets 525 likes
          Show this thread
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021

          It makes total sense to wait for more data to estimate transmission reduction to guide policy in a more fine-grained matter. That's not the same as "we don't know" or "we have no idea." Multiple trials have already measured some relevant data and we've had more recently.

          3 replies 13 retweets 282 likes
          Show this thread
        4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021

          So to repeat: the Pfizer/Moderna trials endpoint was *any* symptomatic disease. So even sniffles or headache counts. All the vaccines* seems to work well against severe disease, but especially well against deaths/hospitalizations. (*I can't make sense of ChAdOx1right now).

          5 replies 24 retweets 298 likes
          Show this thread
        5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021

          And we've had multiple data points coming in about transmission reduction since December. From the trials, from labs, and pretty soon we will start getting data from vaccinated people in the community. We're not in some totally agnostic "we have no idea" land here.

          10 replies 14 retweets 268 likes
          Show this thread
        6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 19 Feb 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Laurie Garrett

          I just want to add that to this thread and note that the below is nonsense. With all due respect to her good work before, this has become an unacceptable situation. (And I’ve ignored multiple other examples).https://twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1362814447656587264 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Laurie GarrettVerified account @Laurie_Garrett
          3/ What we are looking at is "vaccine resistance" -- it's akin to antibiotic resistance that can be so strong in some bacteria that they are 100% incurable infections. In this study, the spectre of #COVID19 #vaccines being rendered useless looms -- NOT assured, but ominous.
          Show this thread
          15 replies 58 retweets 349 likes
          Show this thread
        7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 19 Feb 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Laurie Garrett

          Oh I forgot. The below is false, too. There is no such “20-fold decrease in vax efficacy” or anything of the sort due to variants. (The best I can make out of this is she’s confusing lab reports about neutralizing antibodies with vaccine efficacy, something very very different).https://twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1362814446708654087 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Laurie GarrettVerified account @Laurie_Garrett
          2/ Taking just one dose of either vaccine? VERY bad idea. A 30-fold lower virus-fighting capacity with 1 dose. The UK B.1.1.7 variant isn't a vax problem. BUT the P1 (Brazil), P2 (Japan) variants --20-fold decrease in vax efficacy. The SoAfrican (B1351) -- 100-fold decrease. MORE
          Show this thread
          12 replies 17 retweets 187 likes
          Show this thread
        8. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. John Skylar, PhD‏ @JohnSkylar 9 Feb 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          Not just "any symptomatic disease." Any symptomatic disease that is confirmed to occur concurrently with PCR-positivity for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Without the PCR-positivity, patients are rightly not counted in the numbers of COVID-19 cases.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. This Tweet is unavailable.
        4. Show replies
        1. Corey Brill‏ @brillythekid 9 Feb 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          Corey Brill Retweeted A Marm Kilpatrick

          Well, it seems like we got some transmission news today...https://twitter.com/DiseaseEcology/status/1359213735424872450 …

          Corey Brill added,

          A Marm Kilpatrick @DiseaseEcology
          Vaccine efficacy in blocking infection & transmission (I think) We can now estimate the (minimum) reduction in transmission from the Moderna vaccine. Thread tl;dr Moderna vaccine blocks >90% (87-93%) of infections & 91% (89-94%) of transmission. *Critiques welcome! pic.twitter.com/GjQIo3v4oe
          Show this thread
          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. thornbill‏ @thornbill8 9 Feb 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          *It’s not accurate to use a secondary endpoint that the trial is not powered to determine with a high degree of confidence as a claim. People are going to make suboptimal behavioral choices if perceived 100%. **Does not apply to B1531 which has documented 2-3 fold titre loss

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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