Oh come on. "95% efficacy" for either Moderna or Pfizer in the FDA process DOES NOT mean "95% less severe hospitalizations and death in vax'ed individuals." This is a strikingly incorrect "correction."https://twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1359219118315036673 …
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Here's a very smart thread based on actual data (not the nonsense "we have no idea" that's become standard) on transmission with initial estimate of about 90% reduction in transmission. Not the final word, but there will be SOME transmission reduction.https://twitter.com/DiseaseEcology/status/1359213768488620034 …
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It makes total sense to wait for more data to estimate transmission reduction to guide policy in a more fine-grained matter. That's not the same as "we don't know" or "we have no idea." Multiple trials have already measured some relevant data and we've had more recently.
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So to repeat: the Pfizer/Moderna trials endpoint was *any* symptomatic disease. So even sniffles or headache counts. All the vaccines* seems to work well against severe disease, but especially well against deaths/hospitalizations. (*I can't make sense of ChAdOx1right now).
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And we've had multiple data points coming in about transmission reduction since December. From the trials, from labs, and pretty soon we will start getting data from vaccinated people in the community. We're not in some totally agnostic "we have no idea" land here.
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I just want to add that to this thread and note that the below is nonsense. With all due respect to her good work before, this has become an unacceptable situation. (And I’ve ignored multiple other examples).https://twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1362814447656587264 …
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Oh I forgot. The below is false, too. There is no such “20-fold decrease in vax efficacy” or anything of the sort due to variants. (The best I can make out of this is she’s confusing lab reports about neutralizing antibodies with vaccine efficacy, something very very different).https://twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1362814446708654087 …
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End of conversation
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Not just "any symptomatic disease." Any symptomatic disease that is confirmed to occur concurrently with PCR-positivity for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Without the PCR-positivity, patients are rightly not counted in the numbers of COVID-19 cases.
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Well, it seems like we got some transmission news today...https://twitter.com/DiseaseEcology/status/1359213735424872450 …
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*It’s not accurate to use a secondary endpoint that the trial is not powered to determine with a high degree of confidence as a claim. People are going to make suboptimal behavioral choices if perceived 100%. **Does not apply to B1531 which has documented 2-3 fold titre loss
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