The efficacy endpoint for these trials has been "any symptomatic disease"—even sniffles, headache, fever. That's what the 95% refers to, not "less severe hospitalization & death" which, in the trials (all the trials) have been reduced by 100%. Transmission, is another thing.
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Here's a very smart thread based on actual data (not the nonsense "we have no idea" that's become standard) on transmission with initial estimate of about 90% reduction in transmission. Not the final word, but there will be SOME transmission reduction.https://twitter.com/DiseaseEcology/status/1359213768488620034 …
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It makes total sense to wait for more data to estimate transmission reduction to guide policy in a more fine-grained matter. That's not the same as "we don't know" or "we have no idea." Multiple trials have already measured some relevant data and we've had more recently.
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So to repeat: the Pfizer/Moderna trials endpoint was *any* symptomatic disease. So even sniffles or headache counts. All the vaccines* seems to work well against severe disease, but especially well against deaths/hospitalizations. (*I can't make sense of ChAdOx1right now).
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And we've had multiple data points coming in about transmission reduction since December. From the trials, from labs, and pretty soon we will start getting data from vaccinated people in the community. We're not in some totally agnostic "we have no idea" land here.
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I just want to add that to this thread and note that the below is nonsense. With all due respect to her good work before, this has become an unacceptable situation. (And I’ve ignored multiple other examples).https://twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1362814447656587264 …
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Oh I forgot. The below is false, too. There is no such “20-fold decrease in vax efficacy” or anything of the sort due to variants. (The best I can make out of this is she’s confusing lab reports about neutralizing antibodies with vaccine efficacy, something very very different).https://twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1362814446708654087 …
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What does the 95% really mean?
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I think it means 95% less symptomatic illness. They are more like 100% effective against severe disease. But given how confused the experts seem to be don’t hate me if I’m wrong.

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I really wish you experts would get this all sorted. Truly.
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It's actually *all sorted out* and the most basic point.
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