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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Nick Rafter‏ @NRafter 7 Feb 2021

      Nick Rafter Retweeted zeynep tufekci

      yeah, the problem is, you can do this indefinitely. You can wipe COVID off the planet and still argue for more restrictions because "we don't know" if it will come back at any time. The adjustments we're making are not slight.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1358530598969704456 …

      Nick Rafter added,

      zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynep
      When a pathogen changes & when we're facing an exponential threat, first, the response has to be to adjust ourselves defensively, despite the uncertainty and then, if warranted, adjust it again as information comes out. "We don't know yet" is a cause for *more* action, not same.
      Show this thread
      1 reply 0 retweets 16 likes
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Feb 2021
      Replying to @NRafter

      We don’t always face pandemics! And if we had acted early, we could have avoided most of this.

      3 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
    3. Ben Recht‏ @beenwrekt 7 Feb 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @NRafter

      You keep saying this, but there is scant evidence that this is true. You seize on the evidence you like, ignore the evidence you don't like. Respiratory viruses are very hard to control, and it turns out we haven't solved the problem yet.

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Feb 2021
      Replying to @beenwrekt @NRafter

      South Korea is an excellent example. They got hit so bad—really unlucky mega-superspreading event. They beat it back. Flu, agree. This one is so overdispersed that we had a chance. If China could, we could have too. The overdispersion is key: makes early action super potent.

      3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Feb 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @beenwrekt @NRafter

      In fact, treating this like the flu—which is the Western pandemic playbook—was a key early mistake. Flu isn’t overdispersed and basically you don’t expect to stop it once it’s out until you get a vaccine—and those have efficacy ceilings.

      5:04 PM - 7 Feb 2021
      • 2 Likes
      • arm and hammer and dance joao
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. Nick Rafter‏ @NRafter 7 Feb 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @beenwrekt

          yeah but that makes the case that the pandemic playbook Trump was accused of recklessly throwing out was useless anyway. We didn't have a plan to deal with this type of virus.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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