The U.K. variant is now tearing across the U.S., doubling its prevalence among confirmed infections every 10 days. I highly recommend @zeynep on how to think about the dangers posed by variants, and the flaw in oversimplifying new strains as “less deadly”https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/12/virus-mutation-catastrophe/617531/ …
-
-
Do we know why the UK variant is so much more infectious? What's the best working theory about what properties it has that are different or which transmission mechanism it's better able to take advantage of?
2 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
zeynep tufekci Retweeted Prof. Shane Crotty
The mutation is in the spike protein, but crucially, the mechanism may be higher viral loads in the upper respiratory tract.https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1348003470733758464 …
zeynep tufekci added,
Prof. Shane Crotty @profshanecrotty1/ One pre-print on B117 viral loads (i.e., B.1.1.7 SARS-CoV-2 ) found substantially higher viral loads (median 10-100 times). Another UK study found 3 times higher viral loads in people with B117 (Bonsall/Golubchik study). https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.24.20248834v1 … https://www.coronavirus-fraser-group.org/files/files/updated_report_to_nervtag_oxford_20201222.pdf …Show this thread3 replies 9 retweets 31 likes -
Replying to @zeynep @cartoon_magoo and
Virologist Vincent Racaniello and others are still saying it’s not clear whether the UK mutation is more transmissible.
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @ibrake4ants @cartoon_magoo and
It may even turn out they are right—that's the nature of science, though I think it is increasingly unlikely. That said, given the nature of the exponential threat, we *must* act like it is likely more transmissible as soon as the threat became credible enough.
1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes -
Replying to @zeynep @cartoon_magoo and
I agree it’s much wiser to err on the side of caution. I didn’t even know there were virologists who didn’t agree with the conclusion that it’s more transmissible until a couple of days ago.
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
Almost every big question has legit people who are convinced of various answers. I think that's normal and even healthy in a fast-moving epidemic. The policy question is two-fold: when to act because of preponderance of evidence and when to act because tail-risk is high.
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.