The U.K. variant is now tearing across the U.S., doubling its prevalence among confirmed infections every 10 days. I highly recommend @zeynep on how to think about the dangers posed by variants, and the flaw in oversimplifying new strains as “less deadly”https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/12/virus-mutation-catastrophe/617531/ …
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I agree it’s much wiser to err on the side of caution. I didn’t even know there were virologists who didn’t agree with the conclusion that it’s more transmissible until a couple of days ago.
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Almost every big question has legit people who are convinced of various answers. I think that's normal and even healthy in a fast-moving epidemic. The policy question is two-fold: when to act because of preponderance of evidence and when to act because tail-risk is high.
End of conversation
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