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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. David Fisman‏Verified account @DFisman 5 Feb 2021

      But the basic idea is that the pandemic itself seals its own doom by depleting population susceptibility, just as a forest fire ensures its own end by burning up all the fuel. And it overshoots: so by the time the pandemic is over, the R(effective) is LESS than 1.

      1 reply 15 retweets 261 likes
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    2. David Fisman‏Verified account @DFisman 5 Feb 2021

      So: game over for the virus, right? Erm, no. That decline in R is transient. Susceptibility in the population starts to reaccumulate, both because of waning immunity in infected/vaccinated individuals, and because of accumulation of newly minted baby-people in the pop

      4 replies 21 retweets 286 likes
      Show this thread
    3. David Fisman‏Verified account @DFisman 5 Feb 2021

      who replace the elder-people at the other end of the life span as they die. That results in repletion of susceptibility. The virus (as with flu, as maybe with sars2) can also lend a helping hand by mutating over time (we call this "drift") with flu, and becoming...

      1 reply 13 retweets 221 likes
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    4. David Fisman‏Verified account @DFisman 5 Feb 2021

      ...sufficiently different from previously circulating strains that it de facto increases population susceptibility. We see this play out every year or two with very drifty flu. It's one of the reasons we have to keep changing the flu vaccine (which has 2 different A antigens)

      2 replies 7 retweets 233 likes
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    5. David Fisman‏Verified account @DFisman 5 Feb 2021

      But that's not a pandemic, for two reasons: 1. We have a much lower R because of prior population immune experience. 2. Those who have been around longest (older people) have prior immune experience.

      2 replies 11 retweets 224 likes
      Show this thread
    6. David Fisman‏Verified account @DFisman 5 Feb 2021

      And are protected against these resurgences by earlier exposure. That's why the 2009 pandemic was mild. Those who would be most likely to die from a novel resp infection had prior lifetime immune experience. Not the case in 2019-2021.

      1 reply 14 retweets 243 likes
      Show this thread
    7. David Fisman‏Verified account @DFisman 5 Feb 2021

      So be confident. The idea of a forever-pandemic is about as plausible as the idea of a forever-forest fire. Not gonna happen.

      9 replies 85 retweets 632 likes
      Show this thread
    8. David Fisman‏Verified account @DFisman 5 Feb 2021

      Viruses replicate a lot faster than we do, so they always have a head start on anything that depends on mutation. It is likely that we'll challenges over time as novel variants, maybe even vaccine escape mutants, emerge.

      3 replies 14 retweets 220 likes
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    9. David Fisman‏Verified account @DFisman 5 Feb 2021

      And I would expect that even with immunization we will continue to see seasonal and off-season outbreaks of covid-19 in crowded institutional settings (and cruise ships) which have been hotspots for outbreaks long before there was a COVID-19 pandemic.https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16276954/ 

      7 replies 38 retweets 347 likes
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    10. David Fisman‏Verified account @DFisman 5 Feb 2021

      I hope that's helpful. There's more to say here, but it's coffee time. COI declaration: I study infectious diseases for my job, and I think it's dumb for people to die of communicable diseases unnecessarily.

      82 replies 71 retweets 1,486 likes
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      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 5 Feb 2021
      Replying to @DFisman

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted David Fisman

      Thank you! I spent a good chunk of last February trying to explain the "novel" part to friend telling me about the flu. (I mean, yeah get your flu shot...) Now, it's a bit reversed, the lowered susceptibility (infection+vax) is almost disregarded.https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1357665128884424705 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      David FismanVerified account @DFisman
      We tend to be very focussed on *the bug* with pandemics. What really creates a pandemic is widespread susceptibility. Does the discarded cigarette butt start the forest fire? Sure. But what makes the forest fire a conflagration is having a long drought and a lot of dead trees
      Show this thread
      2:23 PM - 5 Feb 2021
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      • Andrew Watson Masked in Vic 😷 JR Jasnah Kholin - 8964 - ACAB - 💉💉
      0 replies 1 retweet 4 likes

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