(Also is three weeks too short for a robust response? It increasingly seems that non-standard interval was chosen mostly to speed up trials. Randomizing three weeks and, say, five or six weeks and comparing outcomes might be useful and seems pretty low risk?).
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Yes, the convergent evolution is worrisome and we're gonna eventually need boosters but all the vaccines look excellent on all the measures that count, and now we know even with the worse variants! I think as people see the real results, the vaccines will make their own case.
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Just got to cover as many people as possible as fast as possible. The results will speak. I think we hit a home run with vaccination—that wasn't foretold—and people don't realize that 60% was kind of a *ceiling* with flu... Tunnel still kinda grim but I feel better about end now.
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And the difficulty in messaging with vaccines that have different effectiveness in RCTs (J&j vs moderna/pfizer). Again, it’s the tension btw pop health & individual health.
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Waiting for J&J EUA app to get better idea of their definitions but I wish we emphasized the part below.
Once I get the J&J data, if there is granularity, I may do a power calculation on how big a sample we'd need to even tell them apart from results.https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1356079020878786561 …
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