Something really important about exponentials: if we can get all case numbers and all severe disease drastically down (measures and vaccination) the new variants will have a harder time. We need more vaccines for the world, and probably like the flu, boosters.
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We're really, really lucky to have so many highly-effective vaccines *so early* against this pathogen. But we need to vaccinate the world. The whole world. Tomorrow is the one year of anniversary of my tweet below. Today is a reminder.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1222655571884535808 …
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Thread from a virologist with details: we need to wait for the actual paper. 90% efficacy from one more vaccine (THAT CAN BE STORED IN A REGULAR FRIDGE) is great news; SA variant drop is worrying; efficacy against severe disease could still be pretty high.https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1354948645561495555 …
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More. There's a double/triple reality here. We have excellent vaccines and having more is great. Variants are emerging and we'll eventually have to do boosters, and the more we use this year to vaccinate as many people as possible, the better the future.https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1354943792990859267 …
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Wait why do we need boosters if it's similarly effective? Or is it a matter of 80% vs 95% or something?
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It's 90% against wild type and UK variant, about 60% against SA variant
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I’m a big proponent for mental health and this is going to be tough news for those struggling right now.
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It's not terrible! It's about 90% efficacious in UK, thus including UK variant, and even with South Africa it is effective (even though it is lower) and may well be cutting severe disease significantly (which is what matters most). We'll look at the paper when it comes out.
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Do you think we'll need boosters because of B.1.1.7 & B.1.351 or because of yet unseen mutations that will continue the trend of variants driving lower activity vs. vaccinated blood?
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I know you've talked about this, but just restating the importance of the mRNA vaccines being quick (relatively speaking) to update probably can't be under-stated.
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The speed of the science means nothing without a corresponding regulatory and approval process
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