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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Asit K Mishra  😷 🪟‏ @akm5376 27 Jan 2021

      Sometime early last year, an arbitrary >15 minute limit was placed on classifying close contacts for tracing #Covid_19 transmission. As @jmcrookston puts it, no one knows for sure why 15 minutes and believe me, if he is not sure, no one is. No one has looked harder. A 🧵 1/7

      12 replies 107 retweets 277 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Asit K Mishra  😷 🪟‏ @akm5376 27 Jan 2021

      Gradually over the year though, evidence started emerging that the virus does not wear a watch, i.e., 15 minutes is not a magical barrier. Busting the 15-minute myth further: 2/7

      2 replies 16 retweets 90 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Asit K Mishra  😷 🪟‏ @akm5376 27 Jan 2021

      https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6943e1.htm … Outbreak in a prison. Correctional officer infected with ~17 minutes of cumulative exposure, not continuos, and he was wearing masks during all interactions 3/7

      2 replies 16 retweets 69 likes
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    4. Asit K Mishra  😷 🪟‏ @akm5376 27 Jan 2021

      Revised guidance from CDC. "Individual who has had close contact (within 6 feet for a total of 15 minutes or more)" Now 15 mins or more, cumulative, over 24 hours. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/public-health-recommendations.html … 4/7

      2 replies 16 retweets 67 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Asit K Mishra  😷 🪟‏ @akm5376 27 Jan 2021

      Two infections, from one person, seated over 4 meters away. One infection in ~5 minutes spent in same room 5/7 https://jkms.org/DOIx.php?id=10.3346/jkms.2020.35.e415 …

      4 replies 31 retweets 98 likes
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    6. Viral Helmets #CovidIsAirborne‏ @ViralHelmets 27 Jan 2021
      Replying to @akm5376 @cohnkaren

      I think the impact of #SuperEmitters is underestimated. We know viral concentration in saliva and nose vary by 10^7. Simple math shows that the 90th and 99th percentiles are about 400x and 40000x more virulent. See calculations: https://github.com/chonghorizons/covid-estimators/wiki/SuperEmitters …

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    7. Asit K Mishra  😷 🪟‏ @akm5376 27 Jan 2021
      Replying to @ViralHelmets @cohnkaren

      You may have already come across this great article by @zeynep https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/ … regarding superspreaders and k value and dispersion of #COVID19 Its impact is known, not given due policy consideration yet, which is why, arbitrary limits of time and space are meaningless

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    8. Viral Helmets #CovidIsAirborne‏ @ViralHelmets 27 Jan 2021
      Replying to @akm5376 @cohnkaren @zeynep

      Thanks! I had forgotten about that article. k in epidemiology is exactly right, but is hard to explain in 60 seconds to a busy school board. #superemitters is easy to explain. 100 infected people. Do you want protection against just the middle case? Or against all 100? 10sec

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    9. Viral Helmets #CovidIsAirborne‏ @ViralHelmets 27 Jan 2021
      Replying to @ViralHelmets @akm5376 and

      @zeynep thanks for the great article on k from so long ago. Framing it as median case vs 99th percentile case also gives CDC cover. CDC guidelines protects most cases. But for the overdispersed #superemitters we now know more about (and b117 may exacerbate), need stronger rules

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 27 Jan 2021
      Replying to @ViralHelmets @akm5376 @cohnkaren

      Thank you! Yes, the overdispersion is an opportunity (allows for better targeting and it also makes limiting introductions to places very important as we're not doomed with just a few introductions) but makes certain types of analyses/communication hard.

      8:59 AM - 27 Jan 2021
      • 1 Like
      • Asit K Mishra 😷🪟
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Asit K Mishra  😷 🪟‏ @akm5376 27 Jan 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @ViralHelmets @cohnkaren

          I would believe it made #scicomm harder if I had not read you. Now I believe others should just try harder

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Viral Helmets #CovidIsAirborne‏ @ViralHelmets 27 Jan 2021
          Replying to @akm5376 @zeynep @cohnkaren

          @akm5376 I was thinking of writing up the SuperEmitter math issue and posting on Medrxiv. If I did a first draft, would you take a look? Aiming for a very short 1 page article (more like a note). DM me and we can discuss? @zeynep also, but I assume you're already super busy

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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