I was responding to the back-and-forth upthread which seemed to be suggesting we need data showing there is no transmission risk before we modify recommendations. We will probably never get that data, and so probably need to be a little more nuanced.
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There are human challenge studies being prepared in Europe. They will likely be able to give a definitive answer on this question.
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Replying to @ENirenberg @notdred and
What I meant was we probably won't get the data because it's probably not true that there is zero transmission risk. Isn't it unlikely that if the vaccine is less than 100% effective at stopping symptomatic disease, it's 100% effective at stopping transmission?
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On a per-person basis yes, but I believe as uptake rises you get additive indirect effects from the collective "herd," but let me check with an expert-
@nataliexdean if you have a minute I think your insights would be really helpful here1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes -
Replying to @ENirenberg @RidleyDM and
Yes, I think the emphasis should be on getting as many people vaccinated as possible, and the benefits eventually manifest on a population basis. And we see meaningful improvement sooner if we're trying to keep R as low as possible while we roll out vaccines
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Replying to @notdred @ENirenberg and
Agreed. "Yes, vaccines probably reduce transmission, but probably not perfectly—so the safest and best way to get our normal lives back is to keep masking/distancing until vaccines help cases drop."
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David Ridley Retweeted zeynep tufekci
A timely article (which conveys the same point I'm making, perhaps a bit more aggressively):https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1351208819892826113?s=20 …
David Ridley added,
zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynepGood coverage of the latest messaging disaster, in a year with many. We are dramatically underselling the amazing vaccines, exaggrating the uncertainties and people trying to emphasize the good news are being drowned out, or worse. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/18/briefing/donald-trump-pardon-phil-spector-coronavirus-deaths.html …Show this thread1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes -
Replying to @RidleyDM @ENirenberg and
I still just don’t know who
@zeynep and others are referring to. I keep seeing Frieden’s depressing tweet referenced. Besides that I see a lot of people extremely enthusiastic about vaccines who are just saying please keep masks on until we know more and/or more people are vaxed3 replies 1 retweet 20 likes -
lots of media coverage of side effects/allergies (despite v low rates) plus tons of "obviously we should be doing ____ instead" (prioritizing different groups, "not" prioritizing at all, single doses, etc) and of course tons of antivax garbage
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I’ve seen all that and it’s very troubling (including coming from Zeynep who has vocally advocated for experimenting with dosing regimens), but there’s a difference between giving hopeful yet cautious advice based on evidence and overconfidently saying we know things we don’t.
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Angela, I have vocally advocated for a *trial* of dosing regimes. It’s the WHO expert committee who said altering schedule is okay (up to six weeks), the expert vaccine committee in the UK that said up to twelve weeks is okay, any other leading experts who advocated for altering.
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I said you advocated for experimenting with dosing regimes, which is what a trial is. The 6 week delay is based on data, as is the 12-week delay for AstraZeneca (not Pfizer). The decision to extend for Pfizer in the UK and now Quebec is disputing by just as many experts.
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Replying to @angie_rasmussen @zeynep and
Out of curiosity, is there a reason you find the idea of doing a modified-dosing *trial* "troubling"? Coming at this as a layperson it makes complete sense to me (1) not to monkey with dosing until we have RCT data but (2) to generate more RCT data and find out what works.
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End of conversation
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