People also want actionable messages; so whether you say “we don’t know” or “we don’t know how much”— what guidance are you @AaronRichterman or anyone else willing to put nickel down on right now? When shld people stop wearing
? Bc I don’t have a good answer- maybe you both do
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I think it is completely possible to emphasize caution—I am out there since December calling folks to up all their cautions because of the new lineages—without underselling the vaccines and just communicating the honest moment plus uncertainty.
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Which is pretty straightforward. Vaccines will reduce transmission, and preliminary data is already there and encouraging. We don’t know by how much yet and there is widespread community transmission so not abandoning masks yet, but we will, eventually.
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I just don’t see why “yes we think they will reduce transmission, but we don’t know how much, and in a situation of rampant transmission, we must continue NPI” is an unreasonable message. This is what I see from the professionals on Twitter.
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I *like* that message. I assure you, that is not the only message that is getting out there. That’s the message I’m advocating for. It’s really become “they don’t prevent transmission” in so many minds. Maybe not among your friends.
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I agree we shouldn't say those things, but we also can't say transmission will be reduced by 80%+, so practically speaking we're left with the guidance to continue masks + public health measures until we have more data.
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Not only keep masking, I’m trying to get people to *up* their masking (lineage etc.). But why undersell the vaccines? It will reduce transmission, and once we vaccinate widely, it will also reduce community incidence. We need to talk about the end game. People are tired.
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