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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Kai Kupferschmidt‏Verified account @kakape 16 Jan 2021

      IF 75% were already infected in Manaus, then 3 ways to explain surge, @EvolveDotZoo told me: 1. P.1 doesn’t matter. Immunity is waning and people are getting infected again. 2. P.1 is better at reinfecting people. 3. P.1 is more transmissible (threshold for herd immunity higher)

      15 replies 119 retweets 396 likes
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    2. Kai Kupferschmidt‏Verified account @kakape 16 Jan 2021

      It could, of course, also be a combination of these three factors. But it should be clear from this why the situation around P.1 is concerning and why figuring out what is going on in Manaus is one of the urgent puzzles of this pandemic.

      4 replies 30 retweets 261 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Kai Kupferschmidt‏Verified account @kakape 16 Jan 2021

      Even if P.1 and/or 501Y.V2 turn out to be better at reinfecting people that would likely be a gradual effect. It also doesn’t mean they are resistant to the vaccines. But that we are even talking about it is a warning sign. We need to adjust expectations and we need to prepare.

      4 replies 40 retweets 248 likes
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    4. Kai Kupferschmidt‏Verified account @kakape 16 Jan 2021

      As @BillHanage told me: "We spent months talking about how slow the mutation rate is. I think it is smart to get ready to make different vaccines, and smooth regulatory pathways, so that we can plug-and-play. Because this is going to keep happening.”

      10 replies 109 retweets 469 likes
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    5. Kai Kupferschmidt‏Verified account @kakape 16 Jan 2021

      Make no mistake: Most researchers I talk to agree on this. And it marks a shift. This shift is not simply due to mutations accruing which was to be expected. It’s because we are seeing the virus essentially make evolutionary “leaps” to certain combinations of worrying mutations.

      5 replies 87 retweets 372 likes
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    6. Kai Kupferschmidt‏Verified account @kakape 16 Jan 2021

      So what is needed? Basically what @WHO’s emergency committee called for: More genomic surveillance and sharing of the data. More research into what these variants really mean. (UK’s new consortium G2P-UK seems like a good start, but more needed.)

      3 replies 37 retweets 275 likes
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    7. Kai Kupferschmidt‏Verified account @kakape 16 Jan 2021

      Finally, a word about B.1.1.7, the variant first identified in England. The evidence has become stronger and stronger over time that this is more transmissible (but it likely has litte effect on immunity).

      4 replies 31 retweets 220 likes
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    8. Kai Kupferschmidt‏Verified account @kakape 16 Jan 2021

      I‘ve spent a lot of time in recent weeks explaining the evidence and why this presents a huge problem to the world. Here, for example:https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/viral-mutations-may-cause-another-very-very-bad-covid-19-wave-scientists-warn …

      5 replies 103 retweets 324 likes
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    9. Kai Kupferschmidt‏Verified account @kakape 16 Jan 2021

      So let me end with what @angie_rasmussen told me about the US, where many hospitals are at capacity. “Further increases in transmission can tip us over the edge where the system collapses. Then we’ll start seeing potentially huge increases in mortality.”https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/new-coronavirus-variants-could-cause-more-reinfections-require-updated-vaccines …

      14 replies 112 retweets 327 likes
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    10. Todd Lencz‏ @ToddLencz 16 Jan 2021
      Replying to @kakape @DrMikeRyan and

      @zeynep has reported that the 75% number is inflated due to sampling bias

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Jan 2021
      Replying to @ToddLencz @kakape and

      That it’s a possibility. It’s pretty confusing at the moment and I certainly have no “reporting” on that. Just for clarification.

      7:52 AM - 16 Jan 2021
      • 2 Likes
      • arm and hammer and dance Susan Hatch
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Todd Lencz‏ @ToddLencz 16 Jan 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @kakape and

          Thanks for clarification - did you not report that sampling for the serosurvey was biased by free testing?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Jan 2021
          Replying to @ToddLencz @kakape and

          Yes, possibly! Something to look into, for sure. I just want to make sure it’s clear that I have no direct reporting on this.

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Show replies

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