Everyone's tried and it's been a long year. But a lot of really good things are right around the corner—vaccines! With exponential threats, early action is worth so much. We will have more clarity soon, and it is easier to tamper down later if warranted.https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/12/virus-mutation-catastrophe/617531/ …
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Thanks a lot to
@AdamJKucharski,@trvrb and@dylanhmorris but also the many others who have been sharing data/findings on this new variant. It may not be visible to everyone but the scientific community has been very fast *and* generous in pushing the knowledge out. Let's act.1 reply 5 retweets 54 likesShow this thread -
(And yes, I get it. There has been needless fear-mongering over small or very rare threats, beach-shaming, miscommunication of flattening the cure, not always great risk communication etc. plus the vaccines are *really* good news. Still, risks are risks, and this one really is).
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Vaccine rollout speed & scale? It was always important but it has become much more important. Aggressive public health action? Crucial till we get more clarity on the new variant. But with vaccines plus so many already sadly infected, I do believe spring will be much much better.
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Folks, the CDC has issued a report warning about the UK variant, B.1.1.7 and the other two variants of concern (including the P.1). Everything from my December 31st piece (linked upthread) stands: we have to lower transmission and speed up vaccination. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/pdfs/mm7003e2-H.pdf …
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Replying to @zeynep
Does this part still hold true?: "We don’t know if our existing tools—masks, distancing, and disinfecting—are as effective as they were compared with an identical scenario with the regular variant." Asking bc I've read seemingly opposite claims on this point v recently.
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Replying to @poniewozik @zeynep
Ie here, "current mitigation strategies were effective against the new strain: -- https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/15/health/covid-cdc-variant.html … But here, suggests swapping cloth for N95 masks, stopping grocery trips &c: https://www.vox.com/22220301/covid-spread-new-strain-variants-safe-grocery-store-n95-masks-vaccine … Maybe this just *seems* contradictory to me?
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Replying to @poniewozik
If it is more transmissible, ceteris paribus, then things almost certainly aren't "as effective" but it is also highly unlikely that we need a new category of mitigation—still a respiratory virus. Still masks, distancing, hygiene... But I'd say strong case to be more strict.
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Replying to @zeynep @poniewozik
The question still up in the air is why more transmissible? Plus, new strains are showing with the same @#!# convergent evolution—probably happening in chronic infections in immunocompromised victims—so something is almost certainly adaptive. But how?
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Lower infective dose—a likely scenario—means that the same situation that would not get you sick three months ago with the wild-type now gets you sick. Plus winter colder dry air apparently helps the virus I'm generally more cautious right now.
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Replying to @zeynep @poniewozik
So better masks? Yes. Good idea, now even more so. Also, fwiw, for the first time since the start, I've switched to delivery for groceries and stopped the outdoor socializing till there's a bit more clarity, warmer weather and maybe better masks for folks.https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/01/why-arent-we-wearing-better-masks/617656/ …
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Replying to @zeynep @poniewozik
I've been double-masking (cloth + surgical on top, clamped over my nose)... Is this silly?
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