There are very obvious reasons why some countries are doing what they are, and there are also obvious and important cautions people are expressing. The worst case scenario is not measuring which has now turned into a natural experiment. If we measure, we can respond either way.
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An op-ed from
@Bob_Wachter (chair of UCSF Dept of Medicine) and@ashishkjha (dean of SPH at Brown). https://twitter.com/Bob_Wachter/status/1345741327330263042 …pic.twitter.com/KCQPer2SsV
4 replies 23 retweets 87 likesShow this thread -
zeynep tufekci Retweeted Prof. Akiko Iwasaki
Also see this thread by one of the country's leading virologists on why she thinks we should delay the boosters in order to increase early coverage. (Disclosure: the article she's linking to about the risks of increased transmissibility is mine)https://twitter.com/VirusesImmunity/status/1345086669607890945 …
zeynep tufekci added,
Prof. Akiko IwasakiVerified account @VirusesImmunityMy first tweet of 2021 is going to be about 1 dose vs. 2 dose vaccine. I have tweeted in the past of the immunological advantages of a 2 dose vaccine. However, given the enhanced transmission variants on the rise, we need a modified strategy. (1/n) https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/12/virus-mutation-catastrophe/617531/ …Show this thread3 replies 9 retweets 62 likesShow this thread -
zeynep tufekci Retweeted Adam Kucharski
Do note that with exponential growth, more *is* very different. If a location had an R just below 1, and if the new variant tips it just over 1—with the same policies—the difference isn't minor. It's the difference between decline and uncontrolled spread.https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1345714389329051663 …
zeynep tufekci added,
Adam KucharskiVerified account @AdamJKucharskiNext, suppose control can get R=0.8. In this scenario, 50% increase in transmission (R=1.2) tips epidemic into exponential growth. So we go from declining outbreak to one that sweeps uncontrolled through population. Hence 50% increase could mean many many fold more infections. 3/Show this thread2 replies 23 retweets 95 likesShow this thread -
I wrote this article (on New Years Eve!) because I was seeing so much media & even public health officials inappropriately reassure the public that the "new variant isn't more deadly." Technically correct but profoundly misleading about the real threat. https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/12/virus-mutation-catastrophe/617531/ …pic.twitter.com/93Py6foXvO
8 replies 37 retweets 143 likesShow this thread -
Another article advocating for an immediate trial for what happens when/if the booster is delayed, by
@peterbachmd of Sloan-Kettering. He, too, suggests health-care workers as potential (could be others). "All breakthrough no follow-through" is costly. https://www.statnews.com/2021/01/04/stop-debating-first-shot-vs-set-aside-hospitals-should-compare-them/ …pic.twitter.com/XC2Mphm3gj
4 replies 8 retweets 48 likesShow this thread -
zeynep tufekci Retweeted Isaac Bogoch
WHO expert committee says delaying booster up to six weeks (given supply issues) rather than three is okay (based on existing data) and also says will update recommendations for delay as more data becomes available.https://twitter.com/BogochIsaac/status/1347545566679592960 …
zeynep tufekci added,
Isaac BogochVerified account @BogochIsaacPfizer#COVID19 vaccine & new WHO recommendations: *You still need 2 doses *You should still try to dose as per schedule But due to supply, "interval between doses may be extended up to 42 days, on the basis of currently available clinical trial data". https://bit.ly/35jENK45 replies 32 retweets 85 likesShow this thread -
Details from the WHO expert committee: "Countries experiencing exceptional epidemiological circumstances may consider delaying for a short period the administration of the second dose as a pragmatic approach to maximizing the number of individuals benefiting from a first dose."pic.twitter.com/INAZ6Iy6j5
4 replies 14 retweets 74 likesShow this thread -
Biden administration will indeed stop keeping second dose in reserve and front-load the vaccine distribution. (NB: I advocated for a *trial* asap on delayed booster & not keeping second dose in reserve. I also support having these trades-off discussions).https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/08/politics/biden-vaccine-strategy/index.html …
7 replies 20 retweets 115 likesShow this thread -
Replying to @zeynep
I think that they are still relying on the supply chain to deliver the second doses and planning on a normal vaccination schedule.
1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
Which is exactly what I advocated for in multiple articles, and which was not being done until now. Delayed booster discussion is related but distinct. On that, I've advocated for a trial. Many experts think we should, others don't and WHO say six weeks okay plus UK is doing it.
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Replying to @zeynep @Fyodor32768
You keep me sane. I just have to tell you that. Thank you
@zeynep.0 replies 0 retweets 0 likesThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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