Anyone who can look at this graph and what we know so far about B.1.1.7 and not be intensely worried has not been paying attention… #B117pic.twitter.com/zIoKcsGYsA
You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more
Very, very interested in both of your takes on this. Initial analysis says new variant is only 10% of new infections, but it's a preliminary investigation.https://twitter.com/laineydoyle/status/1346216309953077253 …
Could be both epi+new lineage reinforcing each other but that’s both scary and potentially informative. We need to figure out why this lineage may be more transmissible (to mitigate it better). Is it even more superspreading? Lower k? Stronger aerosolization? Dunno.
Yeah Irish government made political decision and rolled dice for Christmas season. They were aggressive in taking action in early fall, but chanced it in December. Be interesting to see north of Ireland data broken out from UK.
Big backlog of tests in Ireland too, which are gonna make slope look even more steep.
I did a small regression that showed population density is about 33% of variation. Weather is also key; see below where Argentina peaked in its winter as the northern hemisphere is now. New variant is a factor and probably a major one but not sure how much.pic.twitter.com/3ZRKhToZcg
Weather seems to be the key for understanding social behaviour.
When it's getting colder, people meet each others indoor, with poor ventilation.
I think, ventilation (+the frequency of contacts) is the main key bc #COVIDisAirborne.
Exactly my feeling. Behavior change, seasonality (flu season really only starting now) etc probably account for some of this, but given multiple strands of evidence I have hard time believing that’s it...
This is my spidey sense; need more genomic surveillance everywhere, and vaccinate fast fast fast.
With family in Ireland, it's been a shock for people to witness this explode from relative control. I'm just glad to be in Scotland where ScotGov could be even firmer if it weren't for UK Govt holding some of the #covid19 control levers.
Yes, it's extreme care time again
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.