An excellent thread on epistemology
What do we know and how do we know it?
A narrow view of what we know, what is data can lead us into mental traps
This is not about delayed vs immediate vaccine doses
This is about what do we mean when we say, follow the science. H/T @zeynephttps://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1345800480144945152 …
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Replying to @ashishkjha
And thank you for being out there with reasoned discussion on this obviously thorny, complex topic. It's much easier to stay quiet or to advocate for what appears bureaucratically safe rather than dive into discussions of trade-off in the face of uncertainty and a dire situation.
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Replying to @zeynep @ashishkjha
We've all been diving into these trade-offs, even if we think a shift from a regimen with documented, robust efficacy to one with less certain effects is unwise. Juxtaposing it as "reasoned discussion" vs "bureaucratic safety" is your own value judgment coming into play here.
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Replying to @gregggonsalves @ashishkjha
There *has* been a lot of bureaucratic safetyism—not just talking about the vaccine debate—but obviously that doesn't mean everyone I disagree with is doing that. (Moreover, in this case I don't even have the basis to defend strong opinion on either side).
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Replying to @zeynep @ashishkjha
OK, sorry I misread the response in this case.
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I started out seeing it as mostly bureaucratic defensiveness but now see that there are a range of reasons why people are concerned about delaying 2nd dose. I don't find them compelling at the moment but I think reasonable scientists and others can disagree on this one.
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Yes, there appear to be multiple reasons for and threats against for a potential; and different calculus at individual-level & population-level. Only thing I'd object here would be to treat "three weeks" as a final word. That's obviously chosen to be minimal, to speed up trial.
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Ideally, people with valid concerns would sit with population modelers & look at how to thread the many needles. Rely on supply chain for booster, minimal delay for high-risk/elderly with longer delay for younger/healthy perhaps? Dunno. But we can't even distribute what we have!
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