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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Jan 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Dima Babilie (ديما ببيلي)

      I'd like to highlight a point about epistemology. Many people—scientists and journalists—with infectious disease experience immediately pegged this as the next potential SARS. It had all the hallmarks. Nothing was certain, but it wasn't that we had "no data." We always have data.https://twitter.com/DimaBabilie/status/1345861726370205696 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Dima Babilie (ديما ببيلي) @DimaBabilie
      This is the first story the BBC published about Coronavirus exactly one year ago. It was only referred to as a “mysterious viral pneumonia”. Crazy how no one thought this would still be the biggest and most important story of our lives. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-50984025 …
      9 replies 145 retweets 551 likes
      Show this thread
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Jan 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Robert Wiblin

      Here's a good thread about the "no data" fallacy. (You don't have to agree with it's conclusions—point is the epistemology). A bureaucratic "no data" doesn't equal scientific "no data". Imperfect, incomplete, uncertain yes. "No data" is almost never true.https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1345800480144945152 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Robert Wiblin @robertwiblin
      A serious reasoning error that is particularly common among educated people is to argue that if a study hasn't been done on a particular question we have 'no data', and therefore no basis on which to form beliefs or act. This is incorrect and dangerous. 1/
      Show this thread
      5 replies 41 retweets 202 likes
      Show this thread
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Jan 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Dr Seán DOOLAN  🐇 🤗  💙 🍃 💚 ☘️

      Policy (and thus public health) will necessarily involve working with imperfect, incomplete data, and (sometimes terrible) trade-offs. Mike Ryan of WHO had it right. "If you need to be right before you move, you will never win." Hence all these debates.https://twitter.com/i/status/1346073730510954498 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      0:45
      Dr Seán DOOLAN  🐇 🤗  💙 🍃 💚 ☘️ @SDinPraxis
      As Mike Ryan of WHO said in March, drawing from decades of experience in emergency response medicine and disease outbreaks Have to move FAST to stay ahead Economy is BASED on health, cannot be health for some, economy for others https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1346065152085532672 … pic.twitter.com/aZEZ0sKl9l
      2 replies 35 retweets 161 likes
      Show this thread
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Jan 2021

      I'm not arguing here about any particular debate but the fallacy that's plagued a lot of this discussion. There is of course stronger/weaker and different types of evidence, different trade-offs and calculations etc. But "no data" is almost never true, and yet gets used a lot.

      3 replies 8 retweets 77 likes
      Show this thread
    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Jan 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted zeynep tufekci

      I've been thinking that, epistemologically, that might be one of the most important lessons of last year. An implied philosophical frequentism that has plagued our analysis/action/communication.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1341452907175170050 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynep
      Replying to @arpitrage
      Implied, philosophical frequentism and blank-slateism has been the bane of our pandemic response—everything from the guidance to the communication. Half-mulling writing a book just on that.
      4 replies 19 retweets 78 likes
      Show this thread
    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Jan 2021

      (And please don't @ me as if this is an argument about the merits of a particular vaccine scheduling or dosing. I'm talking about epistemology. There are people with impeccable credentials making important points on all sides of that & decisions will be made with imperfect data!)

      4 replies 5 retweets 73 likes
      Show this thread
    7. David Ridley‏ @RidleyDM 4 Jan 2021
      Replying to @zeynep

      I do think it's important to recognize, however, that hardly anyone is actually saying "we have no idea if one dose works." The principal concerns are second-order effects where we (arguably) also have reasons to say it's problematic: escape variants⬆️, vaccine hesitance⬆️, etc.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Jan 2021
      Replying to @RidleyDM

      You are wrong.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. David Ridley‏ @RidleyDM 4 Jan 2021
      Replying to @zeynep

      Am I? At least among the people you refer to with impeccable credentials having nuanced discussions, most aren't saying we literally have no idea if one dose is effective for at least a little while. The epistemological point is important but we should be mindful of straw men.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Jan 2021
      Replying to @RidleyDM

      The world—and parts of it with impact—is much bigger than the people you follow on Twitter. That's all I have on that.

      7:03 AM - 4 Jan 2021
      • 1 Like
      • David Ridley
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. David Ridley‏ @RidleyDM 4 Jan 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          That is a fair point. There are a *lot* of people falling prey to this fallacy (as another branch of this thread pointed out, even more on post-vaccine transmission than on dosing, I think).

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. David Ridley‏ @RidleyDM 4 Jan 2021
          Replying to @RidleyDM @zeynep

          I realize I was ambiguous, sorry - when I said "hardly anyone" I meant "hardly anyone among the impeccably credentialed people you were talking about." Ah, Twitter.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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