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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Jan 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Dima Babilie (ديما ببيلي)

      I'd like to highlight a point about epistemology. Many people—scientists and journalists—with infectious disease experience immediately pegged this as the next potential SARS. It had all the hallmarks. Nothing was certain, but it wasn't that we had "no data." We always have data.https://twitter.com/DimaBabilie/status/1345861726370205696 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Dima Babilie (ديما ببيلي) @DimaBabilie
      This is the first story the BBC published about Coronavirus exactly one year ago. It was only referred to as a “mysterious viral pneumonia”. Crazy how no one thought this would still be the biggest and most important story of our lives. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-50984025 …
      9 replies 145 retweets 551 likes
      Show this thread
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Jan 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Robert Wiblin

      Here's a good thread about the "no data" fallacy. (You don't have to agree with it's conclusions—point is the epistemology). A bureaucratic "no data" doesn't equal scientific "no data". Imperfect, incomplete, uncertain yes. "No data" is almost never true.https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1345800480144945152 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Robert Wiblin @robertwiblin
      A serious reasoning error that is particularly common among educated people is to argue that if a study hasn't been done on a particular question we have 'no data', and therefore no basis on which to form beliefs or act. This is incorrect and dangerous. 1/
      Show this thread
      5 replies 41 retweets 202 likes
      Show this thread
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Jan 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Dr Seán DOOLAN  🐇 🤗  💙 🍃 💚 ☘️

      Policy (and thus public health) will necessarily involve working with imperfect, incomplete data, and (sometimes terrible) trade-offs. Mike Ryan of WHO had it right. "If you need to be right before you move, you will never win." Hence all these debates.https://twitter.com/i/status/1346073730510954498 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      0:45
      Dr Seán DOOLAN  🐇 🤗  💙 🍃 💚 ☘️ @SDinPraxis
      As Mike Ryan of WHO said in March, drawing from decades of experience in emergency response medicine and disease outbreaks Have to move FAST to stay ahead Economy is BASED on health, cannot be health for some, economy for others https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1346065152085532672 … pic.twitter.com/aZEZ0sKl9l
      2 replies 35 retweets 161 likes
      Show this thread
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Jan 2021

      I'm not arguing here about any particular debate but the fallacy that's plagued a lot of this discussion. There is of course stronger/weaker and different types of evidence, different trade-offs and calculations etc. But "no data" is almost never true, and yet gets used a lot.

      3 replies 8 retweets 77 likes
      Show this thread
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Jan 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted zeynep tufekci

      I've been thinking that, epistemologically, that might be one of the most important lessons of last year. An implied philosophical frequentism that has plagued our analysis/action/communication.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1341452907175170050 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynep
      Replying to @arpitrage
      Implied, philosophical frequentism and blank-slateism has been the bane of our pandemic response—everything from the guidance to the communication. Half-mulling writing a book just on that.
      6:43 AM - 4 Jan 2021
      • 19 Retweets
      • 78 Likes
      • Vinay Gorur Arnoud Zwemmer GrungibleSwan Bentalope Maximum Vaxxed Mary Graeme Blake Rocco Eating Gold, Frankincense, and Myrrh pile of typos in a trenchcoat 🧣 Eileen Clancy
      4 replies 19 retweets 78 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Jan 2021

          (And please don't @ me as if this is an argument about the merits of a particular vaccine scheduling or dosing. I'm talking about epistemology. There are people with impeccable credentials making important points on all sides of that & decisions will be made with imperfect data!)

          4 replies 5 retweets 73 likes
          Show this thread
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Jan 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Corey S. Powell

          Yep. The BBC story then just repeats the Chinese official lie that there had "been no human-to-human transmission" whereas anyone familiar with these viruses, the region & the Chinese government patterns knew this to be likely false and acted accordingly.https://twitter.com/coreyspowell/status/1346107331847860230 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Corey S. Powell @coreyspowell
          Replying to @zeynep
          Exactly one year ago, the head of infectious disease at the University of Hong Kong was calling for strict monitoring, warning of the likelihood of rapid transmission, and anticipating a surge of new infections during Chinese New Year. https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/k2/1500994-20200104.htm …
          2 replies 16 retweets 119 likes
          Show this thread
        4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Jan 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Dr Nicole E Basta

          Also, on the vaccine debate, this is an excellent thread. (No, it won't give you an answer but explains why we are where we are, differences between individual results & population-level questions and makes a strong case for adapting fast as we go along).https://twitter.com/IDEpiPhD/status/1345176257995165696 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Dr Nicole E BastaVerified account @IDEpiPhD
          As you consider the #COVID19 #vaccine debates about 1 vs 2 doses, timing of 2nd dose & dosing w/ 2 diff vaccines, keep in mind there is no "right" answer & there are gaps in the evidence such that we may not know which is the "right" answer for a long time. Why not? A 🧵… 1/
          Show this thread
          4 replies 15 retweets 53 likes
          Show this thread
        5. End of conversation
        1. Champagne Opener by Default‏ @DewNO 4 Jan 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          To clarify: Do you mean "philosophical frequentism" as opposed to Bayesianism, as in "explicitly stating priors and updating them dynamically with the weight of new evidence"? Because I'd agree. I think that applies across the board in US politics, COVID just exposed it.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Wanting better‏ @cschneider8224 4 Jan 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          Yes! I have felt this as well and also feel that frequentism has plagued our interpretation of what is evidence-based in other fields. I work in humanitarian aid and if there is no RCT, we act as if we have no clue if something works.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Wanting better‏ @cschneider8224 4 Jan 2021
          Replying to @cschneider8224 @zeynep

          I have also worked on health guidelines & seen how rigid the frameworks are for what constitutes evidence. But then also, at the end of the day, the "evidence" is interpreted by ppx who bring in their priors, yet these priors are unstated. And therefore are difficult to influence

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. takemitsuronin‏ @takemitsuronin 4 Jan 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @simon_bazelon

          Maybe it wasn't new to the virologists and epidemiologists, but it was new to the media, and they set the tone for the public discourse. Unfortunately.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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