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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Jan 2021

    zeynep tufekci Retweeted Dima Babilie (ديما ببيلي)

    I'd like to highlight a point about epistemology. Many people—scientists and journalists—with infectious disease experience immediately pegged this as the next potential SARS. It had all the hallmarks. Nothing was certain, but it wasn't that we had "no data." We always have data.https://twitter.com/DimaBabilie/status/1345861726370205696 …

    zeynep tufekci added,

    Dima Babilie (ديما ببيلي) @DimaBabilie
    This is the first story the BBC published about Coronavirus exactly one year ago. It was only referred to as a “mysterious viral pneumonia”. Crazy how no one thought this would still be the biggest and most important story of our lives. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-50984025 …
    6:26 AM - 4 Jan 2021
    • 145 Retweets
    • 551 Likes
    • Tom Jesson Shin Gojira Wil Rogan FVM Akshay Buddiga 🇺🇸 The_War_TARDIS Vinay Gorur Wanda Power orthonormal
    9 replies 145 retweets 551 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Jan 2021

        zeynep tufekci Retweeted Robert Wiblin

        Here's a good thread about the "no data" fallacy. (You don't have to agree with it's conclusions—point is the epistemology). A bureaucratic "no data" doesn't equal scientific "no data". Imperfect, incomplete, uncertain yes. "No data" is almost never true.https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1345800480144945152 …

        zeynep tufekci added,

        Robert Wiblin @robertwiblin
        A serious reasoning error that is particularly common among educated people is to argue that if a study hasn't been done on a particular question we have 'no data', and therefore no basis on which to form beliefs or act. This is incorrect and dangerous. 1/
        Show this thread
        5 replies 41 retweets 202 likes
        Show this thread
      3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Jan 2021

        zeynep tufekci Retweeted Dr Seán DOOLAN  🐇 🤗  💙 🍃 💚 ☘️

        Policy (and thus public health) will necessarily involve working with imperfect, incomplete data, and (sometimes terrible) trade-offs. Mike Ryan of WHO had it right. "If you need to be right before you move, you will never win." Hence all these debates.https://twitter.com/i/status/1346073730510954498 …

        zeynep tufekci added,

        0:45
        Dr Seán DOOLAN  🐇 🤗  💙 🍃 💚 ☘️ @SDinPraxis
        As Mike Ryan of WHO said in March, drawing from decades of experience in emergency response medicine and disease outbreaks Have to move FAST to stay ahead Economy is BASED on health, cannot be health for some, economy for others https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1346065152085532672 … pic.twitter.com/aZEZ0sKl9l
        2 replies 35 retweets 161 likes
        Show this thread
      4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Jan 2021

        I'm not arguing here about any particular debate but the fallacy that's plagued a lot of this discussion. There is of course stronger/weaker and different types of evidence, different trade-offs and calculations etc. But "no data" is almost never true, and yet gets used a lot.

        3 replies 8 retweets 77 likes
        Show this thread
      5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Jan 2021

        zeynep tufekci Retweeted zeynep tufekci

        I've been thinking that, epistemologically, that might be one of the most important lessons of last year. An implied philosophical frequentism that has plagued our analysis/action/communication.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1341452907175170050 …

        zeynep tufekci added,

        zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynep
        Replying to @arpitrage
        Implied, philosophical frequentism and blank-slateism has been the bane of our pandemic response—everything from the guidance to the communication. Half-mulling writing a book just on that.
        4 replies 19 retweets 78 likes
        Show this thread
      6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Jan 2021

        (And please don't @ me as if this is an argument about the merits of a particular vaccine scheduling or dosing. I'm talking about epistemology. There are people with impeccable credentials making important points on all sides of that & decisions will be made with imperfect data!)

        4 replies 5 retweets 73 likes
        Show this thread
      7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Jan 2021

        zeynep tufekci Retweeted Corey S. Powell

        Yep. The BBC story then just repeats the Chinese official lie that there had "been no human-to-human transmission" whereas anyone familiar with these viruses, the region & the Chinese government patterns knew this to be likely false and acted accordingly.https://twitter.com/coreyspowell/status/1346107331847860230 …

        zeynep tufekci added,

        Corey S. Powell @coreyspowell
        Replying to @zeynep
        Exactly one year ago, the head of infectious disease at the University of Hong Kong was calling for strict monitoring, warning of the likelihood of rapid transmission, and anticipating a surge of new infections during Chinese New Year. https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/k2/1500994-20200104.htm …
        2 replies 16 retweets 119 likes
        Show this thread
      8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Jan 2021

        zeynep tufekci Retweeted Dr Nicole E Basta

        Also, on the vaccine debate, this is an excellent thread. (No, it won't give you an answer but explains why we are where we are, differences between individual results & population-level questions and makes a strong case for adapting fast as we go along).https://twitter.com/IDEpiPhD/status/1345176257995165696 …

        zeynep tufekci added,

        Dr Nicole E BastaVerified account @IDEpiPhD
        As you consider the #COVID19 #vaccine debates about 1 vs 2 doses, timing of 2nd dose & dosing w/ 2 diff vaccines, keep in mind there is no "right" answer & there are gaps in the evidence such that we may not know which is the "right" answer for a long time. Why not? A 🧵… 1/
        Show this thread
        4 replies 15 retweets 53 likes
        Show this thread
      9. End of conversation
      1. Dak (David A. Keldsen)‏ @d_a_keldsen 4 Jan 2021
        Replying to @zeynep

        SARS but worse: not contained in healthcare, and temperature screening not effective due to spreading during the incubation period. This was suspected very early on.

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Jason Petrulis‏ @JasonPetrulis 4 Jan 2021
        Replying to @zeynep

        And virtually everyone in places such as Hong Kong that knew SARS. A random person off the street in HK in mid-January was already executing a better plan for covid than top US health folks were months later. A big point about epistemology is denial of "foreign" knowledge.

        2 replies 4 retweets 33 likes
      3. Jason Petrulis‏ @JasonPetrulis 4 Jan 2021
        Replying to @JasonPetrulis @zeynep

        The idea of wearing masks against Covid was not arcane or bold in January -- unless you were resistant to learning from Asia. Just check out the early emails flying back and forth -- anyone connected to Asia had a much better idea of the problem than insular NA/Eur folks.

        2 replies 3 retweets 18 likes
      4. Show replies

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