If rich countries can do with less, supply (of other vaccines) for poorer countries will be more. I didn't say there was an excess now because there's clearly a shortage now *everywhere*, and hence the painful discussions of trade-offs, but it's pretty straightforward.
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Again, I think you're overly optimistic about liquidity in the vaccine market.
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Not the way things are, you are right. But the way things are is pretty terrible. I'm pointing out that equity is not at all on one side of the trade-off debate. Ideally, yeah, we increase the supply of stable/easier one-dose vaccines and do away with the trade-off. Of course.
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Also, even in the US, where we'll probably stick to the booster schedule (though do you know why three weeks instead of four to six except to have sped up the Pfizer trial?) there'll be many who miss booster we should collect data.
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Many MANY opportunities for high quality longitudinal and cohort work here.
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Yes. And also, again, without judgment on the outcome of this question, there have been a bunch of curveballs from trials that prior knowledge did not predict. Efficacy of mRNA vaccines. Dexamethasone (many thought it would not work and would harm) that emerged from UK/RECOVERY.
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Ideally, UK would do this as if it were an adaptive trial: with transparency and a means to halt/reverse (especially for those at high risk for severe disease). Or do a tiered approach: emphasize booster for elderly while watching younger cohorts. Etc.
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I think trade-offs and some kitchen-sinking is inevitable, and ideally we'd approach this with "how do we resolve this as fast as possible, while maintaining public trust" kind of approach. To me, that's always randomize when/if possible, collect data always.
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted Keith Klugman
(Speaking of Gates Foundation. Forgot to mention. Here’s Klugman of Gates, who needs no introduction about his credentials and experience with vaccines and vaccination.)https://twitter.com/findingpneumo/status/1339556859473227778 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted Keith Klugman
And Klugman’s response to UK’s decision. (My sense is people like him, with deep global experience and working with vulnerable populations, are a lot more experienced with such thorny trade-offs which are newer to experts from wealthy countries of great privilege).https://twitter.com/findingpneumo/status/1344268340857081858 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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