Yeah, I realize we were surprised with mRNA-vax efficacy. I totally remember the April-June headlines and predictions. I realize why we did the trials the way we did. It's just that given the terrible price of the shortages, we should have adapted the trials as fast as possible.
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The doses are being manufactured considerably faster than they're being adminstered.
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We have even bigger screwups, sure. For the moment. Maybe we'll manage to get stuck here. But that's not relevant to the UK booster spacing issue, and also doesn't make the shortage problem, or the deep global inequity, go away.
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What will attenuate that inequity is not stretching current stocks further. No one seriously believes that if we had say 40% more available Moderna vaccine, that *any* of it would end up in lower-income countries.
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What will attenuate the inequity? Inexpensive, highly stable, safe, effective vaccines.
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One, at least Moderna is absolutely within the capability of many, many LMIC. (Pfizer/BioNTech, not so much). Two, if rich countries stretch Moderna/Pfizer more, that's a lot more of the rest for LMIC. Doesn't resolve question but equity side has that to consider.
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I don't buy that for a moment. Moderna is already well behind their production targets.
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If rich countries can do with less, supply (of other vaccines) for poorer countries will be more. I didn't say there was an excess now because there's clearly a shortage now *everywhere*, and hence the painful discussions of trade-offs, but it's pretty straightforward.
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Again, I think you're overly optimistic about liquidity in the vaccine market.
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Not the way things are, you are right. But the way things are is pretty terrible. I'm pointing out that equity is not at all on one side of the trade-off debate. Ideally, yeah, we increase the supply of stable/easier one-dose vaccines and do away with the trade-off. Of course.
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Also, even in the US, where we'll probably stick to the booster schedule (though do you know why three weeks instead of four to six except to have sped up the Pfizer trial?) there'll be many who miss booster we should collect data.
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Many MANY opportunities for high quality longitudinal and cohort work here.
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