I have only seen one scientist with actual vaccine development experience weigh in on this and they were on the side of delayed dosage
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halvorz ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Retweeted halvorz ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I've been looking for more but so far it's been frustratingly sparsehttps://twitter.com/halvorz/status/1345180640359182337 …
halvorz ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ added,
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coming to the conclusion that vaccinologists need to be More Online
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Again, I cannot resolve the debate within that field (except to keep calling for data collection) but I disagree a bit with Alex. The people with deep/appropriate expertise calling for delaying the booster aren't that few. That said, very thoughtful/leading people also disagree.
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There's a very significant sampling bias here.
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Well, if we had started a placebo/booster in November when the signal emerged, we'd be halfway to a better answer. I realize it's not easy, but given the stakes the best answers are speed up production (make the trade-off moot) and collect data (make the trade-off informed).
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I don't think anyone thought that the mRNA vaccines would show the kind of protection that they have so far shown. The concern was always that the vaccines would show more marginal effectiveness and trial design was driven by concerns that they'd be underpowered.
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And there's also the issue that participants were consented for the trials-as-conducted. A change in design as you suggest would have required that everyone be re-consented.
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Yeah, I realize we were surprised with mRNA-vax efficacy. I totally remember the April-June headlines and predictions. I realize why we did the trials the way we did. It's just that given the terrible price of the shortages, we should have adapted the trials as fast as possible.
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The doses are being manufactured considerably faster than they're being adminstered.
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We have even bigger screwups, sure. For the moment. Maybe we'll manage to get stuck here. But that's not relevant to the UK booster spacing issue, and also doesn't make the shortage problem, or the deep global inequity, go away.
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What will attenuate that inequity is not stretching current stocks further. No one seriously believes that if we had say 40% more available Moderna vaccine, that *any* of it would end up in lower-income countries.
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What will attenuate the inequity? Inexpensive, highly stable, safe, effective vaccines.
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