So you follow a stream that's not on your topo and leads to a waterfall and now you're really out of time and you don't have the gear for a night in snow so you downclimb a low class 5 cliff that you never would have done at the start of the day.
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And you find youself caught in a v-shaped canyon on the wrong side of the fast-running river with its snowlined banks. And next thing you know you're swinging hand over frozen hand across a fallen birch log to get to the other side.
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And the birch log breaks and you're up to your waist in glacier water and it's dark now and you still don't know quite where you are. You're in a situation you never would have considered letting yourself get anywhere near.
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No single decision was that stupid. No single risk that you took was that huge. But you're big trouble now, because the risks compound and at every step there's turning back. This is how you get in trouble in the mountains from the moment you go off plan
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Carl T. Bergstrom Retweeted Carl T. Bergstrom
^*no* turning back [ And darn it, I screwed up the threading. This was supposed to be in there somewhere. Doesn't matter for the vaccine analogy, but it was a part of the story. I mean, it would be, if there had been such a story. ]https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1345207446873096193 …
Carl T. Bergstrom added,
Carl T. BergstromVerified account @CT_BergstromAfter an hour of pushing through undergrowth, you step out onto an open ledge—and it's not at all where you thought you were going to end up. You can keep pushing for that back side of the peak, but but it'll be dark in two hours and you're many miles from camp.Show this thread1 reply 1 retweet 31 likesShow this thread -
So does that mean we shouldn't consider a 1-dose strategy? I guess it depends how well you think the analogy holds. To me it does feel like taking one more risk after a run of bad breaks (fall wave, slow rollout, UK strain) in hopes that *it* will be the one that bails you out.
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But it's just that, an analogy. I'm trying to explain why shifting to a one-dose strategy feels so risky to me, not make a definitive argument about what we should be doing at this stage in the pandemic.
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Case in point, via
@LonesSmith We'll see more of this sort of thing the further off plan we go.https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/01/health/coronavirus-vaccines-britain.html …20 replies 7 retweets 64 likesShow this thread -
Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @LonesSmith
That is such a misleading hotline for what they’re actually planning to do. I read the actual guidance documents. It essentially says make every effort to match types but if the first vaccine is not known and especially if the individuals high risk, do not withhold the booster.
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It doesn’t even say it’s a good idea & notes the lack of interchangeability. It just says if you got a high-risk person that’s probably not gonna return and if you don’t know the first type, go ahead with what you have—better than nothing. I don’t get why the headline or a story.
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*headline 
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Indeed the document makes it clear this is in exceptional circumstances only. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/948757/Greenbook_chapter_14a_v4.pdf …pic.twitter.com/Tdzx4bTTUL
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I shall be interested to see the statistics on (1) how many people get a timely second dose and (2) the average interval. And how different the UK delayed dosage and the US recommended dosage schemes end up being in practice. The best laid plans of mice and men oft go astray.
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End of conversation
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