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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 1 Jan 2021

      Then there's a cliff descent ahead of you that you didn't expect to be so challenging to do without gear. You decide to bushwhack through the forest and come around the back side of the peak.

      2 replies 2 retweets 45 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 1 Jan 2021

      So you follow a stream that's not on your topo and leads to a waterfall and now you're really out of time and you don't have the gear for a night in snow so you downclimb a low class 5 cliff that you never would have done at the start of the day.

      4 replies 4 retweets 36 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 1 Jan 2021

      And you find youself caught in a v-shaped canyon on the wrong side of the fast-running river with its snowlined banks. And next thing you know you're swinging hand over frozen hand across a fallen birch log to get to the other side.

      2 replies 1 retweet 31 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 1 Jan 2021

      And the birch log breaks and you're up to your waist in glacier water and it's dark now and you still don't know quite where you are. You're in a situation you never would have considered letting yourself get anywhere near.

      6 replies 2 retweets 33 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 1 Jan 2021

      No single decision was that stupid. No single risk that you took was that huge. But you're big trouble now, because the risks compound and at every step there's turning back. This is how you get in trouble in the mountains from the moment you go off plan

      11 replies 4 retweets 114 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 1 Jan 2021

      Carl T. Bergstrom Retweeted Carl T. Bergstrom

      ^*no* turning back [ And darn it, I screwed up the threading. This was supposed to be in there somewhere. Doesn't matter for the vaccine analogy, but it was a part of the story. I mean, it would be, if there had been such a story. ]https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1345207446873096193 …

      Carl T. Bergstrom added,

      Carl T. BergstromVerified account @CT_Bergstrom
      After an hour of pushing through undergrowth, you step out onto an open ledge—and it's not at all where you thought you were going to end up. You can keep pushing for that back side of the peak, but but it'll be dark in two hours and you're many miles from camp.
      Show this thread
      1 reply 1 retweet 31 likes
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    7. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 1 Jan 2021

      So does that mean we shouldn't consider a 1-dose strategy? I guess it depends how well you think the analogy holds. To me it does feel like taking one more risk after a run of bad breaks (fall wave, slow rollout, UK strain) in hopes that *it* will be the one that bails you out.

      10 replies 2 retweets 74 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 1 Jan 2021

      But it's just that, an analogy. I'm trying to explain why shifting to a one-dose strategy feels so risky to me, not make a definitive argument about what we should be doing at this stage in the pandemic.

      13 replies 5 retweets 121 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 1 Jan 2021

      Case in point, via @LonesSmith We'll see more of this sort of thing the further off plan we go.https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/01/health/coronavirus-vaccines-britain.html …

      20 replies 7 retweets 64 likes
      Show this thread
    10. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 1 Jan 2021
      Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @LonesSmith

      That is such a misleading hotline for what they’re actually planning to do. I read the actual guidance documents. It essentially says make every effort to match types but if the first vaccine is not known and especially if the individuals high risk, do not withhold the booster.

      1 reply 4 retweets 46 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 1 Jan 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @CT_Bergstrom @LonesSmith

      It doesn’t even say it’s a good idea & notes the lack of interchangeability. It just says if you got a high-risk person that’s probably not gonna return and if you don’t know the first type, go ahead with what you have—better than nothing. I don’t get why the headline or a story.

      8:33 PM - 1 Jan 2021
      • 28 Likes
      • JackJoe Wes Beal Patterzone (((Jim Stein))) Alex Fusco Ataul Bertil Hatt Tony Yates
      2 replies 0 retweets 28 likes
        1. James‏ @iamj7e 1 Jan 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @CT_Bergstrom @LonesSmith

          It's not out of character for the NYT's UK coverage. Their continual disdain and dismissal is perplexing.

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 1 Jan 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @CT_Bergstrom @LonesSmith

          *headline 😄

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. Dr Rob Whitehurst‏ @OYCar 1 Jan 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @CT_Bergstrom @LonesSmith

          Indeed the document makes it clear this is in exceptional circumstances only. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/948757/Greenbook_chapter_14a_v4.pdf …pic.twitter.com/Tdzx4bTTUL

          2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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