Thread. Communicating uncertainty requires monitoring and understanding how it’s heard and disseminated. See next tweet, too. Best approach is.. straight up communicating the uncertainty rather than optimizing message for desired behavior because than we get neither.https://twitter.com/hankgreen/status/1341165998674567169 …
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*then! Sorry! Typing on phone woes.
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted
Not as a dunk, but as an example. Everyday, I notice many, many people who believe the vaccine will not effect testing positive or being contagious at all. Both are very very false. It will likely do both to some degree—we are currently measuring how much. https://twitter.com/dangermouse_l/status/1344686146610229248 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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Replying to @Valentine721 @zeynep
Several things: 1) vaccines take a few weeks to achieve protection; 2) it's a two-dose protocol, so full effectiveness doesn't kick in till you get the second dose; 3) vaccines are excellent protection, but not 100%; 4) effect on transmission not known (you cd still be a carrier)
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Replying to @zsitter @Valentine721
Well a lot of effectiveness does kick in after one dose (just not sure if it wanes without a booster) and 4 is not correct. Effect on transmission is not a complete unknown.
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Replying to @zeynep @Valentine721
Didn't mean to suggest it was a complete unknown, but isn't it accurate to say that we're unsure of that effect? That's been the message from the WHO, FDA, etc.
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The messaging isn't phrased best and hence my objection to it. We're pretty sure of the effect, and that it's positive, just not sure of precisely how big.
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