Thread. Communicating uncertainty requires monitoring and understanding how it’s heard and disseminated. See next tweet, too. Best approach is.. straight up communicating the uncertainty rather than optimizing message for desired behavior because than we get neither.https://twitter.com/hankgreen/status/1341165998674567169 …
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Several things: 1) vaccines take a few weeks to achieve protection; 2) it's a two-dose protocol, so full effectiveness doesn't kick in till you get the second dose; 3) vaccines are excellent protection, but not 100%; 4) effect on transmission not known (you cd still be a carrier)
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Vaccines make the illness less severe and slow the spread. Much less severe and it will spread much slower. Compare the death toll due to seasonal flu from the US to the rest of the world and to similar countries with public vaccination.
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Your message, Prof. Tufekçi, is very correct! We can't fight lies with half truths ... telling the truth is the best way. In 2017, a Yellow Fever epidemic killed over 100 people in São Paulo. A vaccine was offered and people were informed killed 1 in 500,000 immunized. 1/
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2.7 million voluntarily received the vaccine - 3 people died. No information was hidden, either about the risk of death or about the fractioning of doses.
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Of course. To some degree, for sure, perhaps to a great degree. We're trying to measure how much to put better numbers on it.
End of conversation
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The number of cases should drop substantially because the impact on transmission should be high. It is difficult to measure and we don't know it yet, and it is being measured right now. This effect will be between big and huge, not "some" and "none". This is how vaccines work.
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It is far more misleading to say what you said, because only parts of it are technically true and only in an extremely misleading way.
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