In an effort to give more people partial protection quickly, they may end up undermining the entire vaccination strategy and have to start over from scratch in a few months.
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I’m not a public health person nor do I work in pharmaceuticals. Indeed, I have no special expertise here at all, so I hope some expert will correct me and say UK’s approach is rational. But to this educated layperson’s eyes, it looks absolutely crazy.
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Replying to @SeanDEhrlich
A lot of people here also think this would be a good idea.
@zeynep has written about it, among others.1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
What I’ve seen is discussions to give out all doses now but to keep vaccinating people on schedule with newly distributed doses not to delay the 2nd dose. And even that hasn’t been approved anywhere in the US to my knowledge.
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Just checked Zeynep’s timeline and, yes, people are calling to do studies to see if one shot is enough (although I thought Moderna had done that and found 70% effectiveness with 1 shot) but that’s different from implementing a delayed 2nd shot policy without those studies.
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Replying to @SeanDEhrlich @zeynep
David Karol Retweeted zeynep tufekci
David Karol added,
zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynepModerna data is out. At day 28—before dose two—disease prevention efficacy is 92.1% [CI: 68.8%, 99.1%] AND 2/3 fewer asymptomatic infections. Data is small & short-term hence my earlier piece on need for immediate trial for single dose for low-risk groups. https://zeynep.substack.com/p/vaccines-and-decision-making-with … pic.twitter.com/fidQnWPoUQShow this thread1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Leaving more people unvaccinated for longer has huge costs. Johnson & Johnson is one shot, but even assuming it's great, we won't have it for a while.
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Agreed that leaving people unvaccinated has costs, but, as far as I know, we literally don’t know how effective the Pfizer shot is past 21 days if there is no follow up shot. Study it, yes. Implementing it pre-study, as Britain seems to be doing, strikes me as a crazy risk.
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Replying to @SeanDEhrlich @DKarol
Leaving millions of people unvaccinated is also a crazy risk. There is no scenario here without risk. There are a lot very senior immunologists behind the idea, but also other people who point out risks to durability (though it won't just disappear on day 22; it's not a switch).
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Which is why I definitely support studying effectiveness of 1-shot dosage. But we just don’t know yet.
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It's not that we know nothing, though. We need to know more, for sure. It's not a complete unknown.
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