Practically speaking, doesn’t all this mean speed of vaccine rollout—globally—is of great importance?
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Replying to @zeynep @K_G_Andersen and
Yes. If we're worried about this and further mutations the best thing we can do is to vaccinate as widely and as quickly as possible, (while mitigating spread in the interim).
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Replying to @K_G_Andersen @zeynep and
I think we're talking different timeframes. Most countries in the world weren't able to achieve suppression through NPIs. The most robust strategy for suppression will be widespread vaccine coverage. This will stop continual circulation and the opportunity for variants to arise.
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Replying to @trvrb @K_G_Andersen and
Yes, I’m not asking about the next month—and I hear what you are all saying about how much remains unknown about this strain—but the implication of some of the plans I have seen that assume billions left unvaccinated until 2022.
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If SARS-CoV-2 behaves as does 229E, and there’s no reason to expect it won’t, we should anticipate the need for periodic booster vaccines to cover newly emerging variants every few yearshttps://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.17.423313v1 …
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I think there’s a real risk funding & sense of urgency will dry up after a (very welcome) plummeting of severe cases. I’m genuinely asking a question here though. What is the tail risk we should understand about the slow roll out? What can we do? (Or is it not that big a worry?)
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From where I sit (global health economist specializing in LMIC vaccine markets), the absolute worst - but unlikely! - case is if by the time 1st gen vaccines are rolled out they already have diminished RBD neutralization but enhanced infectivity from NTD antibodies.
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Replying to @pickettjessica @zeynep and
Or any other mechanism by which an obsolete formulation is worse than none. Aside from direct harm, that would also further erode public confidence in vaccines more generally.
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Turkey, where I’m originally from, doesn’t even have enough flu vaccines this year and had to *severely* prioritize. So yeah.
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Replying to @zeynep @pickettjessica and
COVID-19 NPI appear to have suppressed influenza in many places. Don’t know specifically about Turkey
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